Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/4/26): Imanaga Gets Another Shot in Miami

The Cubs managed to make it out of town on a high note, riding a Pete Crow-Armstrong homer and a complete pitching performance to a series-halving victory. Now they face a Marlins team that has been hovering right around the .500 mark for most of the season. That might present a bit of a reprieve between sets with the Brewers, but the Cubs haven’t exactly been sharp lately against opponents they should be handling more easily.

Miami is known for its club scene, with action lasting into the wee hours of the morning. Shōta Imanaga won’t be out partying, but he is getting another shot tonight as the club weighs his role moving forward. For my money, he’s either a starter or he’s off the team. That sounds a little harsh, but you can’t employ a reliever who’s prone to giving up homers every time he takes the mound. At least starters have more room to recover.

Imanaga has allowed an MLB-worst 33 home runs, 11 of which have come in his last six starts. He’s given up at least three homers on six occasions, including three starts in a row from May 24-June 4, most ever by a lefty in a single season. A year after becoming unplayable in the postseason, the Cubs can’t afford to give him more opportunities to rediscover his form. Being sharp tonight buys another chance, but I’m out if he lays an egg.

Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch — who really needs to get going here — is at first, and Alex Bregman handles third. Ian Happ patrols left, Nico Hoerner is at short, Pedro Ramírez plays second, and Michael Conforto is the DH. Carson Kelly bats ninth as the catcher.

Going for the Fish is aptly named righty Janson Junk, who has worked with Driveline to refine his repertoire in an attempt to stick around as more than just an emergency call-up. After accumulating just 40 innings over four seasons with as many teams, Junk caught on with the Marlins and should set a new career high after throwing 110 innings last year. He’s at 103 coming into Friday’s action, with all but one of his 21 appearances coming as starts.

The 30-year-old Junk has barely over a year of service time despite debuting with the Angels in 2021, making him a testament to hard work and dedication. His 94 mph four-seam isn’t going to blow anyone away, though he’s throwing harder than ever before, and his 15.3% whiff rate is better than only five of 352 MLB pitchers. For what it’s worth, Javier Assad (14.9%) is one of them. Assad also ranks 351st with a 22.7% chase rate, which is part of why he’s not with the big club.

Look, I get that the results have been pretty good. The same was true for Hoby Milner. But the fact of the matter is that you have to be able to miss bats in order to have success when the games matter most. What I’m saying is that Junk is basically Assad with less good luck and a worse defense. Assad’s cutty fastball and his breaking stuff have also been better.

Junk benefits from a lot of ride on his heater, allowing him to work up in the zone with moderate effectiveness. His big problem is that he creates very little deception and throws too many strikes, which is why he’s given up 106 hits in 103 innings. That also leads to efficiency problems, as he’s only completed six innings four times all year. Only one of those has come in his last 12 starts, though his recent results have been very good.

Since July 26, Junk has a 2.12 ERA with just one home run allowed. He’s given up 33 hits and eight walks with just 19 strikeouts over 34 innings in that stretch, but he’s done a tremendous job of stranding runners. His fastball is offset by an 86 mph slider, an 87 mph changeup that lives at the bottom of the zone, an 80 mph sweeper, and an 81 mph curve. There is also a 93-94 mph sinker that he’ll flash occasionally.

The change is the only plus pitch of that group, so you’d think throwing it more to left-handed hitters would lead to fairly even splits. That is not the case, as lefties have crushed him all season. He has been much better at home, however, and there’s not nearly as much of a platoon disparity in Miami.

Junk has only allowed one hit in 11 total at-bats to members of this Cubs team, and that was a double by Gabriel Arias. This has all the makings of a trap game, though I could just as easily see Junk come crashing back to earth after his strong run of late. I don’t think it’ll be a tweener with the Cubs getting just three or four runs; they’ll either be shut down or they’ll go HAM.

First pitch is at 6:10pm CT on Marquee and The Score.