Cubs Have Decisions to Make on 12 Arb-Eligible Players
The Cubs will have about a month of free agency between the end of the World Series and the end of the current CBA, during which time they will have to determine whether to tender contracts to 12 arbitration-eligible players. That deadline falls on the last Friday before Thanksgiving, which is November 20. The threat of a lockout might have players and agents feeling a little more amenable to early deals for the sake of security, but it could also mean teams are looking to low-ball players even more than usual.
This is a weird year for the Cubs, who don’t have anyone bucking for the kind of raise that puts them in a really tough spot. Some believe Justin Steele could be a victim of the process, but MLB Trade Rumors’ estimate of $6.8 million makes it hard to imagine the Cubs parting ways with him this winter. Though the same can’t always be said for free agency, MLBTR does a great job with their arb projections.
Here’s what they’ve got for the Cubs, with my candidates for non-tender in bold.
- Miguel Amaya: $1.7M
- Gabriel Arias: $1.3M
- Tyler Austin: $1.3M
- Javier Assad: $2.3M ($3.3M club option)
- Ben Brown: $1.3M
- Michael Busch: $5.4M
- Edward Cabrera: $4.8M
- Braxton Garrett: $1.6M
- Daniel Palencia: $1.2M
- Ryan Rolison: $1.1M
- Ethan Roberts: $800K
- Justin Steele: $6.8M
Arias was a late-season pickup who played very sparingly as a backup infielder, so I don’t see them holding onto him even if Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramirez have to assume more regular corner outfield roles. Austin is an interesting one because he was picked up to provide depth at first base and DH before a knee injury during spring training ended his season. He hasn’t suited up for an MLB team since 2019 and he’s out of minor league options.
Garrett was a lottery ticket trade who came over from the Marlins in exchange for Jonathon Long and Jace Beck on August 3. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, pitching just 9.1 innings for the big club, and his 92 mph fastball just isn’t going to cut it for an organization that desperately needs to improve its stuff. Roberts has been a personal favorite of mine for many years now, but he’s sitting 93-94 mph without enough whiff with his slider.
I could see the Cubs sticking with him for the low relative cost, but I could more easily see them parting ways. That’s tough because I would really like to see him figure it out and get back to the big strikeout numbers he put up in the past. But at 29 years old and lacking the big outlier metrics the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure needs to see, Roberts may be looking for a new organization this winter. Or spring. Or summer.
It’ll be interesting to see how the truncated timeline impacts the arbitration process this winter, especially with those teams facing big raises. With no CBA in place to set the guidelines for how those increased salaries will impact the bottom line, things could get pretty wild.
