Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/21/26): Peterson Indeed Starting Rebound Game

In the interest of full disclosure, I’ll let you know right out of the gate that I will not be watching this game. Or at least not most of it, as I’m going with my kids to see The Odyssey in full 70mm IMAX at one of only 25 theaters in the country that are equipped to project it. Tickets were purchased months ago and cost a fair bit more than your standard cinema, but it should be well worth the price of admission. Maybe I’ll even provide a little review tomorrow.

It’ll probably be quick, however, as I’m heading out to Pennsylvania with my son for a prospect camp at Slippery Rock University. More of a fun end-of-summer adventure than anything, but the drive will eat up a lot of what might otherwise be writing time. I’m still battling the hangover from spending 11 of 17 nights away from home in various accommodations, not to mention the uncertain schedules that come from dodging bad weather, but my hope is that things settle down after this.

Jameson Taillon did not appear to be suffering from his six-week layoff with a bad hammy, as he immediately stepped back into his familiar form last night. The righty gave up two homers as he worked to regain the lead in dingers allowed, though he looked great after the opening frame. In true Cubs fashion, reliever Trent Thornton took a 108 mph comebacker off the same left foot that suffered an Achilles tear last August.

Whoa, does anyone else see the pattern here? The Odyssey…homers…Achilles…

It might not look like David Peterson has pitched like an epic hero since joining the Cubs back in June, but one could argue that his wild fluctuations are right in line with Odysseus. Aside from an awful outing against the Cards in his Wrigley home debut, Peterson has pitched quite well. That’s why it was odd to see Ethan Roberts listed as the probable starter on the Cubs’ website yesterday. Not to mention that Roberts was just sent on a rehab assignment to Triple-A Iowa.

Anyway, Peterson is indeed getting the ball without an opener. He’ll need to keep the ball out of the air, which has been an issue for him lately, to keep his offense from having to fight back again.

Pete Crow-Armstrong just set a new record for 5-Star Catches, and he’s back in center tonight. Seiya Suzuki is the DH, Alex Bregman is at third, Carson Kelly is the catcher, Michael Busch is at first, and Nico Hoerner is at second. Ian Happ is in left, Dansby Swanson handles short, and Kevin Alcántara gets a rare opportunity in the hopes that the Cubs can somehow build enough trade value to move him as something other than a giveaway.

On the bump for Detroit is Framber Valdez, who showed qualities reminiscent of Antinous last season when he intentionally crossed up his catcher with a fastball to the chest. Valdez did not suffer nearly as poor a fate as Robert Pattinson’s slimy suitor, though he’s having his worst season in quite some time. The lefty’s 4.10 ERA and matching FIP are higher than they’ve been since 2019, when he was primarily a reliever for Houston, and his 18.6% strikeout rate is lower than it’s ever been in parts of nine seasons.

The first thing we typically look for in situations like this is a drop in fastball velocity, but Valdez is sitting at 95 mph on the heater. That’s more than in any season other than 2023, when he was just under 96 mph. Then again, he only throws the four-seam about 2% of the time. His heavy sinker is ever so slightly under 94 mph, which is a little below the last few seasons even if it’s right in line with his career average.

So the sinker isn’t responsible for the big drop in groundball rate, which is down to 52.3% through 19 starts. While that is in the 91st percentile among his peers, it’s down more than six points from last season and 8.5 points from his career mark. At the heart of the issue are a curve and changeup that have not been quite as effective, whether it’s due to a drop in velocity or subtle changes in shape. Neither has shown significant statistical differences, they’re just getting knocked around a little more.

Valdez has also been pretty inconsistent this year, wavering between good and bad starts with an almost metronomic regularity. Wait, that’s contradictory because he’s actually been very consistent. If that keeps up, it’s a good thing for the Cubs that he’s coming off his best start of the year against the A’s in Detroit. His seven innings matched a season high, and he gave up just one run on three hits. His nine strikeouts were a season high and he issued no walks for just the third time as a Tiger.

The stocky southpaw has always pitched to pretty even splits and has dominated these Cubs hitters in relatively limited action, so I can’t say that I see anything to like in the matchup. Winds will be blowing pretty hard from left to right throughout the day, which should tamp down the power for both sides. This could come down to who’s more opportunistic.

First pitch is at 7:05pm CT on Marquee and The Score.