Hey, Looks Like Edward Cabrera’s Lower Arm Slot Did Indicate Mechanical Problems
Almost exactly a month ago, I wrote about Edward Cabrera‘s rough start against the Rangers and wondered aloud whether it was rock bottom or a harbinger of worse things to come. I kind of copped out by concluding that it was a bit of both, but at the heart of my analysis was concern over the righty’s lower arm slot. While it was just a well-educated theory at the time, dropping his slot seemed to correlate with a dip in velocity and spin efficiency on his breaking balls.
What we know for certain is that Cabrera has dropped his arm slot to 33 degrees this season after being at 36 last year and 42 in 2024. Those angles had each been the lowest of his career, so it may just be a matter of adjusting. There’s been a trend toward lower arm slots across baseball, with many believing it is beneficial to arm health.
As with any adjustment, however, there can be tradeoffs in other areas. For Cabrera, the lower arm slot seems to correlate directly to reduced extension. He was at 6.7 feet in 2024, then 6.5 feet last season, and now he’s at 6.4 feet. While a few inches might not seem like much, releasing the ball farther from the plate means a fastball and sinker that are already down in velocity will play down even more. It also means less deception on breaking balls that aren’t as sharp as in the past.
There were some open questions about whether the Cubs had tinkered with his slot or whether Cabrera himself had made the adjustment, perhaps even subconsciously, to compensate for something else. Those questions were answered by Sahadev Sharma in a piece for The Athletic that details the work Cabrera underwent during his time on the IL with a blister on his right middle finger.
“Usually when you see guys’ arm slot drop, a lot of times there’s a shoulder impingement and they don’t want to get into that, so they work (down) to create space,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy explained. “His is much more about an inefficiency with the lower body that was creating a rotational move with the upper body.”
Cabrera tends to get a little lackadaisical (my word, not that of Sharma or Hottovy) during long toss because he’s so strong, which can result in him cutting out the lower half. That creates issues moving up the kinetic chain, eventually leading to the arm dropping down to be whippy. Pitching requires both linear and rotational movements in concert, and Cabrera was getting a little too heavy into the latter.
“He tends to have his pelvis set a little bit more beneath him,” Hottovy said. “A little more pushy, he likes working extension with the spine. If all that happens, then the arm is going to drag and be flat. So it’s about trying to get him to understand that the initial move of that back leg is so important for him because it helps set up the rest of the delivery.”
Provided he’s able to maintain the recent tweaks, his results should continue to be better and more consistent. That means having the fastball over 97 mph like it has been in the last two starts, up more than a full tick from any of his nine previous outings. Even more important is creating the proper shapes with his breaking balls, not to mention keeping that power changeup in order. Those pitches have indeed looked better since coming off the IL, even if his first start back saw him struggle badly with command.
This is much less about me being right every once in a while and more about how the Cubs are able to identify and correct issues that rob performance. Now if they could just figure out how to prevent every pitcher from getting hurt, they might really be on to something.
