Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/25/26): PCA Continues Assault on NL, Imanaga Faces Skenes
The Cubs snuck one out last night in the series opener, which was even bigger because the Brewers, Cardinals, and Phillies all lost last night. Given the way this team has been carried by its offense, grinding out a win after getting just one run in the first nine innings was very important. It doesn’t get any easier over the next two games, but it’ll sure help if Shota Imanaga can keep pitching like he has been.
Over his last four starts, the lefty has allowed a total of only five runs with 21 strikeouts and five walks. He has had to dodge 26 hits in 23 innings, however, so there’s a little good fortune involved. His best start of the season came against the Pirates back on April 10, when he tossed six hitless, scoreless innings with nine strikeouts and just one walk. A repeat sure would be nice.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is the best player in baseball, and he’s leading off in center once again. Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, Alex Bregman is at third, and Ian Happ is in left. Nico Hoerner plays second, Pedro Ramírez is the DH, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Miguel Amaya does the catching.
They’re facing Paul Skenes, who has not looked at all like himself this season. The big righty has a whopping 3.43 ERA after a 1.96 as a rookie and a 1.97 in his Cy Young campaign, and his fastball has gone from 99 mph to just under 97 through 21 starts. That said, his elevated ERA is really the product of two or three bad outings. His season debut saw him serve up five earned runs while recording only two outs, then he gave up seven in four innings against the Phils last month.
Skenes’ 2.81 FIP and 2.76 xERA are well in line with his two previous campaigns, so there’s ample reason to believe he’ll continue to put up strong starts moving forward. Part of his problem, if that’s even fair, is that his arm angle is up to 26 degrees after being at 23 previously. I don’t know whether and to what extent that has affected his changeup, but what had been a very good pitch for him in the past has been quite bad this season. It doesn’t help that he’s also throwing it 50% more often than last year.
Given how much more frequently he throws it to left-handed hitters, you might think his splits would skew more traditional. Instead, they’re almost perfectly neutral. That changes a bit when you look at his home/road numbers, which favor him at PNC Park. Rather than belabor the analysis any further, I’ll just cut to the chase and say Skenes is still an elite pitcher who is very capable of dominating.
He’s also more prone to a stinker than in the past, so maybe the Cubs can jump on him. First pitch is at 5:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
