Chicago Cubs Lineup

Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/19/24): Wisdom at 1B, Assad Starting as Season Winds Down

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanSeptember 19, 2024

The only thing consistent about the Cubs this season is their uncanny ability to shred any semblance of hope after building it back up. They won two of three against the Dodgers in LA and should have swept, then they dropped two of three to the Rockies in Denver and repeated that feat at Wrigley against the A’s. Now seven games out of the Wild Card with 10 to play, their final stretch is about little other than figuring out their lottery odds.

As far as that goes, the Cubs currently hold a measly 0.84% chance at the No. 1 spot because they’re in 15th place. If they somehow manage to fall below the Reds and/or Giants, those chances improve dramatically because the White Sox and A’s are ineligible to pick better than 10. Alas, we can worry about all that in a couple weeks.

For now, the Cubs are sending Javier Assad to the bump to face the Nationals for the second time in four starts. He collected a win in that previous outing, going six innings with three earned runs allowed. He may have gotten a little lucky in that one after giving up a season-high eight hits and walking two other batters. Assad has given up 11 earned runs on 24 hits and nine walks over his last four starts, but at least he’s given the Cubs length with 24.2 innings in that stretch.

Assuming he doesn’t pitch a shutout, and even if he does, the offense might want to consider putting up at least five runs to protect against the bullpen’s recent implosion. Everything is pretty much status quo, other than Patrick Wisdom getting the start in place of Michael Busch at first base. You’ll see why here in just a bit.

They’re up against Patrick Corbin, who is in the final throes of a six-year, $140 million deal that was supposed to have given the Nats one of the best rotations in the game. That worked for all of one season, as Corbin finished ninth in the Cy Young voting with Max Scherzer finishing third and Stephen Strasburg taking fifth. Washington won the World Series and all was right with their world.

However, Strasburg was never healthy again and pitched another 31.1 innings over the next three seasons. Scherzer was traded to the Dodgers in 2021, leaving Corbin as the lone remaining big-money pitcher. The only problem is that the lefty’s performance dropped off dramatically during his age-30 season, which was also the pandemic year. His ERA jumped to 4.66, then to 5.82 in ’21 and 6.31 the next season. He got it down to 5.20 last year and is currently at 5.45 through 30 starts.

But if you agree that the greatest ability is availability, Corbin has been a very valuable member of the rotation. This is his seventh straight full season with 30 or more starts and at least 152 innings, so he’s been a workhorse if nothing else. He’s a strike-thrower who no longer has the kind of stuff to fool batters regularly, which means even his well-executed pitches can be damaged.

According to Statcast, Corbin ranks in the fourth percentile or lower in overall run value, fastball run value, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage. The only thing saving him from being even worse is that his sinker-first repertoire gets a good number of grounders. Right-handed hitters have destroyed Corbin this year though, putting up a .313/.356/.521 slash with 21 of the 23 homers he’s allowed. Those numbers jump dramatically when he’s on the road, so the Cubs should get theirs tonight.

First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanSeptember 19, 2024
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