Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/18/26): Holmes Pitching as Bats Try to Chase Burns
This one may be a little rushed or even flat-out late, as I’ll be making my way up to a prospect camp at a school in north-central Indiana this afternoon. We’ve been going around to several little showcases and campus visits for a while now, as he’s not quite at the level where Vanderbilt will see him at the Area Code Games and come calling. If that sounds like it’s too specific to be random, that’s because it just happened to one of his high school teammates.
My description was a bit reductive, but still. I was hanging out with two of my fraternity brothers over the weekend for our annual Boats and Brews kayak outing, and we were all laughing about how the recruitment process has changed at the small-school level. One friend played soccer, and he didn’t meet the coach until he showed up on campus for his pre-orientation weekend. The other played tennis, and I was “recruited” to, but the process consisted of the coach calling us and asking if we wanted to play there.
In the end, I’ve found that it still comes down largely to having or making connections. It means a lot to actually get onto the campus and sit down with the coaches and players, whether it’s establishing the foundation of a relationship or just getting a feel for what the school is like. It’s been very eye-opening for me to see all these different schools and learn more about how they do things.
No guarantees yet, but we’re hoping to be able to make an educated choice between 3-4 schools rather than going all or nothing. In any case, I should probably get back to the game…
Clay Holmes is back on the bump after looking like a fighter who was still trying to clear his head from a haymaker that followed a vicious round of body blows. He was left in to wear eight earned runs over 4.1 innings against the Marlins almost two weeks ago, then had to grind out 5.2 frames against the Pirates six days later. Though he only gave up two earned runs, Holmes walked a season-high four batters in that one.
This Reds team presents an interesting challenge in that they can bang with the best of them, as evidenced by their 203 home runs. That mark is just eight shy of the Cubs for the best in baseball, but the Reds are last in strikeout rate (25.5%), batting average (.230), and on-base percentage (.307), plus their 92 wR+ is just one point better than the Rockies for worst in MLB.
Among pitchers with at least 90 innings this season, only five have done a better job than Holmes of limiting home runs. As long as he keeps that up, he should be fine. Of course, it’ll help if his own offense backs him up early.
They’re facing 23-year-old righty Chase Burns for the second time this season and just the third time ever, but that initial meeting consisted of just over an inning of relief in late September last season. Burns is tied for third in MLB with 15 wins, which is all the more impressive when considering that his team is 11 games below .500 coming into this one. His 2.80 ERA isn’t out of line with his 3.17 FIP, and his .287 BABIP against isn’t indicative of an abundance of good fortune.
Though Burns gives up a lot of hard contact in the air, his 98 mph fastball and elite 90 mph slider generate lots of chases and whiffs. His 90 mph changeup has been pretty bad, but he throws it very infrequently. Having his kind of success with just two pitches tells you just how good this kid’s stuff really is. The cut-ride fastball works up in the zone and accounts for about 56% of his pitches, while the slider gets a lot of depth to cut a red swath through his location heat map starting from the lower glove-side corner and moving down to the dirt.
Burns is an over-the-top thrower with a 53-degree arm angle that is among the steepest in the game. Only eight other righties have higher angles, so he provides a different look for hitters. He’ll probably need to develop that third pitch to be successful in the future, but things seem to be working out pretty well for the 2024 No. 2 overall pick out of Wake Forest.
The Cubs managed only three runs (two earned) over 5.2 innings against Burns back on August 30, and they struck out seven times with just one walk. PCA was responsible for one of those runs with a leadoff homer, and he later homered to pull the Cubs to within two runs in what was eventually a loss. The Reds have been limiting Burns’ workload in these meaningless games down the stretch, keeping him to just three innings in each of his last two starts, so this could be one in which the visitors will need to get to the bullpen.
First pitch from the Queen City is at 5:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
