Cody Bellinger, Drew Smyly Could Be Straws That Broke CBT’s Back
Jed Hoyer said on 670 The Score Thursday afternoon that signing Cody Bellinger pushed the Cubs beyond the competitive balance tax threshold, or at least that they presumed it would. What’s funny is that the reunion only happened because no one else was willing to come near Bellinger’s reported $200 million asking price, so the value with which Hoyer is so enamored could push the team into penalty range. They’re not quite there yet, but FanGraphs’ Roster Resource estimate shows less than $1.1 million of buffer as of this writing.
And that’s before factoring in various incentives, escalators, and options.
One such option is held by Bellinger, who took a three-year guarantee potentially worth $71 million if he exercises the second and third years. That puts the contract at a $26.67 million average annual value, but it could bump up to $27.5 million if the outfielder opts to try free agency again after the season. That would put the Cubs roughly $215,000 from the first penalty threshold, which, again, is something they say now they’ve long expected to go beyond.
A day after his boss and the president of business operations talked about how the Cubs are cool with “profligate” spending, GM Carter Hawkins took to 670 The Score’s airwaves to reinforce the notion. I’m trying to decide whether this is the organization trying to dispel the idea that it’s run by cheapskates or a way to get out in front of the poor optics of finishing well back in the division despite a much higher payroll than at least one team ahead of them.
.@leilarahimi asked Carter Hawkins why the Cubs didn’t significantly surpass the competitive balance tax in 2024 considering they were content to go into it by a hair.
Listen to his answer in the video below and check out his full interview here: https://t.co/gGFT4xKqkW pic.twitter.com/5R1xmJ6fHu
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) August 16, 2024
“Yeah, in terms of the CBT calculations, it’s complicated enough so that we have to have a couple guys here that are constantly trying to help us figure out exactly where we are, exactly where other teams are,” Hawkins explained. “It has a lot to do with players that get injured and just where guys are in their contracts and there’s a lot of minutia to that that makes it difficult to say exactly where a team is.
“But I do think, barring any changes, that it’s likely that we’ll be over this year, and that’s about where our budget was. That’s about where we were and it’s something we expected to do, and something that Tom allowed us to do.”
Everyone sees the trades and free agent deals, but this number crunching underpins those and so many other personnel decisions teams make throughout the year. And with all due respect for those who have far more understanding of their finances than I do, it’s very difficult for me to view Hoyer’s recent track record with anything other than contempt. Several players signed prior to 2023 didn’t even last the season, just like Yan Gomes was DFA’d this year with almost $3 million remaining on his deal.
I beat the hell out of the Drew Smyly drum last year as his continued usage late in the season boosted his innings count and earned him an additional $2 million in bonuses. Not just for 2023, but for this season as well. His contract calls for bonuses of $250,000 at 110 and 120 innings, then $750,000 for reaching 130 and 140 innings. Smyly ended up with 142.1 innings after logging 3.1 frames over four of the Cubs’ last six games of the season. And while David Ross may have been doing his reliever a solid down the stretch, you have to wonder whether a lack of communication with the front office helped to hasten his departure.
Hitting those thresholds also increased Smyly’s 2024 salary, bumping his initial $9.5 million AAV to $11.5 million. That 21% jump is worth more than two league-minimum salaries, not that the Cubs have a bunch of dudes at Triple-A waiting for a shot or anything. If Hawkins is being honest about the front office squeezing right up to their budgetary limits, an extra $2 million might be bigger than what amounts to less than 1% of the total layout. In the interest of context, we should also note that ownership isn’t paying out the amount used to calculate the CBT. The Cubs’ actual payroll is closer to $225 million, so it’s more likely Tom Ricketts set a total that accounts for player salaries plus whatever penalty is incurred.
That would probably see them closer to $230 million in order to maintain a little wiggle room. Which brings me back to Smyly and why the Cubs didn’t find a way to move at least a small portion of his remaining salary at the deadline. The relief market was hot as hell in late July and you have to figure Hoyer could have unloaded Smyly and Héctor Neris, who did his damndest to blow another game Friday afternoon. The closer by default needs just 16 appearances in the team’s final 39 games to convert an $9 million mutual option for 2025 into a player option, and he could get there.
With 44 appearances in 123 games, Neris has roughly a 36% usage rate. Maintaining that through the end of September would put him at 14 more outings, but there’s no way Craig Counsell lets that happen. Right? Or maybe it’s more accurate to say there’s no way Hoyer lets that happen. But look at Smyly last year. On one hand, at least Neris’s AAV won’t change. On the other, you have to think the Cubs could do something else in the bullpen with that same amount.
I started this out with the idea of putting down like 300 words and then watching a movie, so I’ve long since rambled off the trail. That means it’s time to shut this down, which I’ll do with a thought that hews close to what I’ve already shared. It seems to me that Hoyer remains so focused on finding value — he mentioned it again on Thursday regarding Bellinger — that he ends up missing the whole point when trying to find bargains. You see, it’s no longer a good deal when you buy too much of something just because it’s on sale.
Sometimes it’s better to pay a premium for a higher quality product that you can rely on to work better, last longer, etc. This talk about being comfortable with tax penalties, especially when they’re just barely tiptoeing into them, strikes me as a miscalculation of resources. As with so many other questions I have about this team, however, we’re going to have to wait until at least the start of next season to see whether that’s really the case.