Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/14/26): Holmes Looking to Improve on First Start
It feels odd to me that the Cubs and Cardinals are about to play their last series of the season with six weeks left before the playoffs, but it’s worth it to finish with the Marlins and Red Sox. After dropping four of six in their first two sets, the Cubs took three of four in St. Louis to even things up. The Cards are still playing good baseball despite being 10 games out of second place, so the Cubs can’t afford to let up at all.
Clay Holmes is making his second start with the Cubs, which also happens to be his second MLB start after spending two months on the IL with a broken fibula. He certainly looked a little rusty while suffering the team’s only loss in Kansas City, giving up four runs on six hits and striking out just one, and his velocity was down slightly. He also threw fewer of his signature sinkers than usual, so that’s a trend to watch in this one.
As Holmes settles in, his penchant for coaxing worm-burners should play really well. It’ll help if the offense can give him breathing room against Missouri’s other team.
They’re facing Matthew Liberatore for the fourth time this season, the last two of which have been Cubs wins. The lefty gave up three runs on eight hits and two walks, lasting only 3.2 innings before giving way to the bullpen. He pitched very well against Toronto in his next outing, then laid an egg against the Rockies six days ago. That’s been his whole season, though, as he tends to be either very good or very bad.
Liberatore’s 5.15 ERA, 5.00 xERA and 4.70 FIP tell us he’s more prone to being cold, which is reinforced by a Baseball Savant slider that has but one exception in a sea of blue. Liberatore has a very good changeup, though it hasn’t mattered much against five other pitches with negative value. His cutty mid-90s fastball tends to stay right in the heart of the zone, making it susceptible to hard contact even when he keeps it up, and he frequently hangs his 87 mph slider.
He throws the slider 40% of the time when facing left-handed batters, so that lack of execution explains why he’s pitching to reverse splits after being more traditional throughout his career. The Cubs have some hot hitters on both sides of the plate, so they should be able to take advantage of Liberatore yet again. Suzuki is the only member of the roster who has been totally baffled by this guy, but the Cubs’ aggregate .809 OPS says they can win even if they don’t all go off.
First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Apple TV and The Score.
