Cubs Extend Qualifying Offer to Seiya Suzuki, Who Will Surely Decline
The Cubs chose to extend a $23.15 million qualifying offer to Seiya Suzuki in order to receive compensation when he signs elsewhere. Unless, of course, the team changes tack on the reported lack of desire to enter a bidding war for the right fielder. That could depend on how high the bidding gets, as early estimates have him landing just a little north of $100 million in free agency. And we’re talking about arguably the top position player on the market, so that’s a bargain.
Sukuki is coming off his best season as a Cub, with his 4.5 fWAR buoyed by Gold Glove-caliber defense in right. He turned 32 in August, so a projected four-year deal should age pretty well even if he ends up sliding back into more of a DH role near the back end. For a Cubs team that is losing both corner outfielders, locking up a little more certainly with Suzuki is a far better option than hoping that Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramírez can hold down those spots.
There has also been a little buzz about them potentially trading for Steven Kwan if the Guardians make him available, though that’s a short-term solution that really only replaces Ian Happ. Many others have mentioned Randy Arozarena, who may not command as much as Suzuki despite having just completed a career year with a 151 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR.
For what it’s worth, Arozarena was one of eight other players to receive a QO from their respective teams. Jake Bauers (Brewers), David Bednar (Yankees), Ryan Jeffers (Twins), Brandon Lowe (Pirates), Adrián Morejón (Padres), and Trevor Rogers (Orioles) were the others. The deadline to accept is November 17, just two weeks before the CBA expires.
I tend to think Jed Hoyer will look at 2027 as something of a gap year, particularly if the lockout costs a good chunk of the season. What I mean is that I think he’ll wait until after the pause to meaningfully address the outfield, and that he’ll do so in more of a temporary manner when he does. With Josiah Hartshorn ascending to the top of the organization’s prospect ranks and earning a Minor League Gold Glove — at first base, but still — to boot, they might have their future right fielder already.
Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley are on the come as well, and the minors will continue as usual regardless of what happens with CBA negotiations. That means the front office will be able to keep tabs on the youngsters to get a better idea of how they need to attack whatever offseason remains when the dust settles. Of course, signing Arozarena or re-signing Suzuki would provide a great deal of security against the entirely likely scenario that only one member of that prospect trio actually succeeds.
It’s also possible that the Cubs could work out a new deal with Happ that pays him more like the platoon outfielder he became in the second half. That would certainly be cheaper than the aforementioned options, and we know how much Jedward would love squeezing oodles of value out of a cheap short-side complementary bat.
More to come.
