Which of These 3 Paths Will Cubs Take to Address Vacant Corner OF Spots?

Do you think it’s better or worse for this winter’s CBA negotiations that we are guaranteed to have at least one low-budget team in the World Series? If the Brewers finish off their 2-0 series lead over the Dodgers, they’ll face one of the two lowest payrolls in the American League. The Brewers are at 19th with $142 million, while the Rays are in 28th with $90 million and the Guardians are 29th with $87 million. Their combined $319 million in payroll equals about $93 million less than what the Dodgers are spending.

That’s right, the gap between the Dodgers’ payroll and the combined payrolls of the other three championship series teams is greater than what either AL team spent. Tell me again why baseball needs a salary cap. Even if we go with the luxury tax figures, which are relatively higher for the non-Dodgers trio due to LA’s massive deferrals, the gap is massive.

Owners won’t be able to use the Dodgers and Mets — who finished last in the NL East — as arguments against the dangers of profligate spending, but will they still dig in on the need for a cap? They could even try to use that as leverage, and I think it’s actually a more powerful stance for them to take. If other teams can be successful with smaller budgets, there’s really no need to carry massive payrolls. Right?

The Cubs have repeatedly borne witness to that as they continue to trail the Brewers year after year in spite of a much deeper pool of resources. Something has to change, namely on the pitching front, but the diminution of the position player group won’t help their top-tier offense. Perhaps the biggest issue facing Jed Hoyer after addressing the staff is what he’ll do to replace the corner outfield spots.

I can tell you the Cubs almost certainly won’t invest a whole lot of money in those spots, as Hoyer admitted during his postseason press conference that arms are the priority. He specifically noted that the pitching staff needs to be on par with the position-player group, and it’s much easier to make that happen if you allow that latter unit to get appreciably worse. Not that the front office is necessarily viewing it that way, but it’s the reality when Peter’s got money that you owe Paul.

Based on what figures to be high demand that could push his next contract into nine-figure territory, Seiya Suzuki is as good as gone. The Cubs are unlikely to enter a bidding war for his services, and they’re less likely to win one, which creates a serious production deficit in right field. Ian Happ has been a polarizing figure over the last several seasons for a number of different reasons, but his future is perhaps a little murkier. With that in mind, let’s look at three possible paths the Cubs could pursue when it comes to the corner outfield next season.

Whenever next season happens, that is.

Roll with Matt Shaw and Pedro Ramírez

If Hoyer really wants to throw caution to the wind, he could opt against doing anything of note in free agency. The Cubs gave Shaw 233 innings across all three outfield positions, with nearly 210 of those coming in right. Ramírez got one whole inning of experience in left, but he does have 44 innings of work there over parts of this season with Triple-A Iowa and in 2024 with high-A South Bend.

Committing the corners to a pair of young players who’ve combined to be slightly below-average offensive performers over 905 MLB plate appearances would be about the dumbest possible option. Even if you expect a little improvement at the plate, this would be a big step back both offensively and defensively.

Treat those spots like the bullpen

A much more likely possibility is that Shaw and Ramírez are part of a mix that features a bounceback candidate or two and maybe a matchup monster like Tyrone Taylor. Craig Counsell could just deploy his outfield situationally, much like a bullpen. If the Cubs indeed opt to allocate the lion’s share of their budget to pitching upgrades, it makes sense that they’d apply their value-based approach to their position-player needs.

The glaring problem here is that you’re banking on very little upside with the potential that the floor isn’t even that high.

Happ and Hope

This is kind of like the previous option, just with training wheels. Bringing Ian Happ back on a discounted deal with the understanding that he’s going to be platooned offers continuity while ensuring the Cubs only need to backfill one spot. Using a matchup guy like Taylor with Happ in left would provide strong defense and formidable offensive production.

Then it’s just a matter of figuring out who plays right. I haven’t mentioned Kevin Alcántara yet, and for good reason. The organization seems to have given up on him after numerous short stints in the bigs, plus he’s out of options. With three outfielders among their top five prospects, it’s hard to see Alcántara doing anything other than keeping a spot warm for a while.

I don’t believe he’s going to factor into the Cubs’ plans unless it’s as a trade chip, and whatever value he might have left is greatly reduced by his lack of options. Rather than hoping he figures it out, I think the organization is putting much more faith in Josiah Hartshorn, Kane Kepley, and Ethan Conrad. Minor League Baseball can still continue even if there’s a lockout because it operates under a separate CBA, so those players can continue to develop even if MLB is at a standstill.

It might sound like a huge leap, and MLB Pipeline has all three youngsters with a 2028 ETA, but it’s not out of the question to see at least one of them debut next year. The fly in the ointment here will be whether Happ is willing to accept a reduction in both salary and role in order to stick around for another year as a veteran placeholder. I’m not sure that’s something he’d accept on the team’s terms, though playing under the qualifying offer could make sense.

Either of the last two paths seems to be the most logical, and I tend to think the Cubs would like to have Happ as a security blanket in some fashion. Then they cobble together the outfield based on matchups and plan for their improved pitching to offset what they lose with Suzuki’s imminent departure.

Any other possibilities I missed?