Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/30/26): Gausman Facing Pivetta in Must-Win Game 2

Well, the opener went like many of us had feared rather than what we’d hoped, so the Cubs are in a do-or-die predicament tonight in San Diego. As much as I’d like to get down and dirty in what might be the last game preview I ever write, there really isn’t much to say about the game outside of the obvious. The first step is to score at least one run, as being shut out means there’s no chance to win.

Kevin Gausman also needs to be better than Matthew Boyd was last night, which means not giving up two home runs on the first four pitches he throws. You’d think that would be a no-brainer, but Gausman has given up eight home runs in his last five starts. He’s given up at least one dinger in eight of his nine Cubs starts, and his 11 homers allowed in that stretch are just four shy of the number he allowed in 23 starts for the Blue Jays.

Gausman has seemingly alternated good and bad starts for his new team, which makes tonight a little scary. He only allowed two earned runs in each of his last two outings, the most recent of which saw him leave early after banging his left shoulder on an incredible diving tag at third base. Between the tender joint and his performance in general, Gausman will surely be on a very tight leash tonight.

“[The shoulder is] good enough to go out there and give it everything I got,” Gausman said after Tuesday’s pregame bullpen. “So that’s what I’m gonna do.”

Craig Counsell has shown a willingness to pull his starters early in postseason games, and he may do so even without signs of struggle from the veteran righty. Over his last five starts, Gausman has struck out 35 batters to just six walks. However, he has also given up eight homers out of 30 total hits. He’s been a lot like Shōta Imanaga in that regard. Counsell can’t worry about a Thursday game that might not happen, so expect to see matchups leveraged at every turn.

The pitching doesn’t matter if the bats don’t wake up, and that starts with Pete Crow-Armstrong leading off in center. Alex Bregman is next at DH, then it’s Michael Busch at first, Seiya Suzuki in right, and Ian Happ in left. Nico Hoerner is at second, Matt Shaw plays third, Carson Kelly is the catcher, and Dansby Swanson takes short.

They’re going up against righty Nick Pivetta, who missed most of the season due to right elbow inflammation. He made just four starts before going on the IL in mid-May, then came back to make four more in September. The 33-year-old looked as sharp as ever, allowing only three earned runs with 18 strikeouts and just two walks over those recent outings.

Pivetta is a high-slot guy who pairs a 94 mph cut-ride fastball with a 79 mph curveball that gets the kind of depth you’d expect from a 57-degree arm angle. He doesn’t have a changeup in the bag, but his 91 mph cutter and 82 mph sweeper provide very different looks with a sigificant velo disparity. Because he’s a strike-thrower with good command and control, Pivetta limits walks while also getting a lot of chase.

His style has led to reverse splits both this season and over the course of his career, with right-handed hitters outperforming their left-handed counterparts. What had been mild differences in the past, however, have grown quite disparate in limited action this year. Most of that is from some outlier performances on the road, so it’s probably fair to assume that the splits would have normalized with more starts.

Pivetta is a fly-ball pitcher who has been prone to home runs in the past, though pitching in San Diego has improved his results on that front to a great degree. That is not reflected in the matchup stats, as most of his experience against these Cubs hitters came during his time with the Phillies and Red Sox. The Cubs have an .809 OPS with seven homers over 107 combined at-bats against Pivetta, but they’ve also struck out 39 times with only eight walks.

Swanson has logged 36 of those ABs from his NL East days, so we should probably take the results with a grain of salt. Given the importance of this game, we might need to throw all context out the window. The Cubs will either get it done and live to play at least one more game, or they’ll shuffle home at the close of a disappointing season. I really don’t know what to think at this point, but I can tell you I’m not bullish on their chances.

Now watch them have one of those incredible performances that reminded us more than once during the regular season of just how good they can be. Either that, or they just fold up immediately. We’ll find out at 9pm CT on Peacock, NBC Sports Network, and The Score.