Quantifying Hope: Cubs Clinch Playoffs, Now Comes Hard Part
The Cubs officially punched their postseason ticket on Thursday, though it was a little like watching a blindfolded child swinging at a piñata or trying to pin the tail on the donkey. They managed only two runs in each of their three games against a Marlins team with nothing to play for, barely escaping the finale with a much-needed win. Now they need to win one more game than the Padres over the weekend to secure home-field advantage in the opening round of the playoffs.
That might not seem like much given the way they just played against the Marlins, but it’s more about not having to go to San Diego. The Padres are 40-41 on the road, but 49-29 at Petco Park. Their home field ranks 27th in MLB for park factor this season, two spots lower than its three-year rolling average, a shift that is due in large part to a drop in home run factor. Petco ranked second in 2024, then dropped to 20th last year, and is 22nd this year.
We saw how having three straight days of unfavorable wind hampered a Cubs offense predicated heavily on home runs, and playing in San Diego could provide a similar environment. That’s particularly scary when combined with a Padres bullpen that features a number of stuff monsters. The Cubs can’t boast the same kind of unit, and they may be dealing with the aftereffects of a weird weekend to close things out.
Friday’s doubleheader still seems to be good to go, but Saturday’s game is very much in jeopardy. It’s possible the Cubs and Red Sox will have to fly to Tampa for a Sunday finale, after which the Cubs might have to hop on a cross-country flight rather than stopping back home for a few minutes. Either outcome would be less than ideal after having to play two games in a day.
That’s why these next three games are so important. The Red Sox have nothing to play for and will be setting up their staff for their own opening round, so they just want to knock these games out without incident. Meanwhile, the Padres are hosting the Diamondbacks, who still have a chance to overtake the Phillies for the final playoff spot. This sets up a wild weekend of scoreboard-watching.
