Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/12/26): No Ace Like Holmes, Pirates Sending Skenes to Bump
The Cubs cruised to yet another easy win in a season that has had more than its share of them, though perhaps not enough to make up for the rashes of disappointing losses. Friday’s victory was important because it pulled the Cubs back into a tie with the Phillies for the top Wild Card spot. Even more importantly, it kept the Padres and Diamondbacks from gaining ground with wins of their own.
As the saying goes: You don’t have to run faster than the bear; you just have to run faster than your friend. Well, that’s kind of where the Cubs are at right now. The only problem is that there are really two bears, which means they’ve got to run faster than multiple friends. Or just fellow hikers. Whatever, this game is important.
To that end, Clay Holmes is going to have to be much better than he was against the Marlins in Miami six days ago. That was his worst start since August 10, 2018 against the Giants, which happened to be just the fifth appearance of his MLB career. Things started out well for Holmes in his most recent outing, with a strikeout and two groundouts setting the tone in the opening frame.
The wheels fell off after that, with both his control and command looking erratic as he gave up six hits with three walks and a hit batter. Holmes had to wear it over 4.1 innings to save the bullpen, so the good news is that he should be plenty rested after an extra day off. I expect him to bounce back nicely in this one, and he may have to depending on how his counterpart pitches.
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center, Alex Bregman is at third, Michael Busch plays first, and Ian Happ is in left. Nico Hoerner is the shortstop, Michael Conforto handles the DH duties, Carson Kelly is the catcher, and Pedro Ramírez is at second. Tyrone Taylor bats last in right.
They’ll have to deal with Paul Skenes, who is battling through the worst season of his career so far with a 3.83 ERA through 29 starts. Though that would be a decent mark for most pitchers, it’s almost double what he posted in each of his first two campaigns. He’s giving up a few more homers and his BABIP is at roughly the league average, but his expected stats tell us his ERA should be at least a half-run better. That’s because the Pirates don’t have a very good defense.
To wit, Skenes has allowed eight unearned runs after giving up a total of six over his first 55 starts. Between the additional contact he’s allowed and the poor glove work behind him, Skenes is not the dominant force who otherwise might have given Jacob Misiorowski a run for his money in the Cy Young race. There are plenty of theories about why Skenes hasn’t been as good, whether it’s from being out of shape or mechanical issues from an increased arm angle, but it all boils down to erratic performances.
He’s had five starts with no earned runs allowed and six outings with five or more earned runs. He’s struck out 10 or more four times while punching out four or fewer seven times. Three of those low-K games have come in his last three starts, two of which saw him hold his opponents scoreless. The thing about Skenes is that he’s got enough pitches to beat you with velocity, but a marked decrease in that velo means he can’t beat you as easily.
At 96.9 mph, his fastball is down 1.3 mph from last year and nearly two ticks from his Rookie of the Year season. Most of his other pitches are pretty well in line with past results from a velo perspective, though his curveball is being thrown much slower. Then again, he’s only thrown 10 of them this year as he continues to phase it out in favor of his sweeper.
Because it lacked depth, it ended up hanging in the zone and being much more hittable than his other breaking balls. That should have been a case of addition by subtraction, but his changeup has been downright awful this year. It’s getting much less arm-side run and vertical drop, making it far less effective than in the past. Even though it still gets a 36.7% whiff rate, that’s a huge step down from 43.9% last season and 54.8% his rookie year.
We’re still talking about one of the best pitchers in the game, a man who’s capable of throwing a no-hitter every time he takes the mound, so he can’t be taken lightly. That said, the Cubs have done well against Skenes in the past, relatively speaking. They’ve also struggled at times. Remember that disparity I noted earlier? Well, the Cubs have accounted for two of those 10+ strikeout games this year alone.
They also hung three and five runs on him in those games, both of which came in Pittsburgh. He’s been a little worse on the road and the wind will be blowing out to center, so I like the Cubs’ chances today. First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
