Quantifying Hope: Cubs’ Odds Still Holding Steady at 96.6% Despite Skid

Losing four straight may have caused the sky to fall, but the same can’t be said for the Cubs’ postseason odds. While they have taken a slight dip from hovering around 99% for more than a month, sitting just shy of 97% puts them in a more comfortable spot than most observers would otherwise assume. To be sure, their postseason position does feel nearly that secure with 15 games remaining.

Unless they’re up by 10 runs, no one feels good about the bullpen’s ability to hold a lead. And that’s really the most important part for the bullpen: the holding. Jacob Webb became the first player in MLB history to give up walk-off or game-tying homers with two outs in three straight save chances, and Daniel Palencia has gotten exactly one whiff in his last four appearances combined. If your high-leverage guys can’t be trusted, your chances of winning in the postseason are about as good as MLB owners admitting they actually make money.

Now, it’s possible that Webb, Palancia, and other relievers get straightened out over the next two weeks to lead the Cubs back into the top Wild Card position. That would be better than continuing a skid that has seen them fall to within three games of being passed by the Padres and Diamondbacks. This series is a big one, and it’ll take more than Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s 40/40 chase to make it exciting.

Winning big and giving some of those relievers a chance to get right in stress-free situations might be a good idea, but the Cubs just need to win by any means necessary right now.