Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/3/26): Gausman Going with Series Split Riding on Line
After blowing the Brewers’ doors off in the series opener, the Cubs dropped the next two games to put themselves in quite a hole. They must win tonight just to split the series and keep the division lead from reaching double digits. What’s more, they can’t afford to lose any more ground to the teams below them in the Wild Card standings. The Phillies matter too, sure, but it’s gotten to the point where even making the postseason is in question.
The Cubs hung five runs on Jacob Misiorowski last night and still managed to lose, but this is a new day. If there’s anyone who knows a little something about giving up five runs and still getting a W, it’s Kevin Gausman. That’s exactly what he did last weekend against the Reds, when his offense supported him with 17 runs in the team’s only victory in that series. How about a better performance from Gausman and another offensive explosion?
Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman is at third. Ian Happ patrols left, Nico Hoerner takes short, Pedro Ramírez is at second, and Michael Conforto is the DH. Carson Kelly rounds things out behind the plate.
They’re facing 24-year-old Logan Henderson, the latest in a seemingly endless parade of young Brewers arms. It’s like sitting at a railroad crossing waiting on a train that would impress even 2 Live Crew as it causes traffic to back up in both directions. Better than being on the tracks, but it’s sure not much fun being stalled like the Cubs have been for a few years now.
A fourth-round pick out of McLennan Community College in 2021, Henderson rose steadily through the system to debut with five starts in 2025. His season was cut short by right elbow inflammation, limiting him to only five MLB starts. Putting up a 1.78 ERA with 33 strikeouts in just 25.1 innings set a strong precedent, though, and Henderson has made good on that this season.
Through 14 starts, he’s got a 2.48 ERA with a 3.31 FIP and 86 strikeouts to just 14 walks over 76.1 innings. A measly .218 BABIP against says he’s due for a little inflation, especially when he gets so little contact on the ground, so we’ll see if the Cubs can do that tonight. Henderson’s fastball sits 93 mph and he gets very little extension from his 6-foot, 210-pound frame, so you’d think hitters would be all over him.
Instead, his ride-run heater and running changeup create all kinds of deception. The heater accounts for about 46% of his throws and the former is at 33%, with much heavier right-on-right usage than most. His 88 mph cutter has also been quite good, then he’s got an 81 mph sweeper that has been subpar in very limited exposure.
This young righty is quite a contradiction in that he gets loads of strikeouts without elite whiff or chase numbers. He also limits BABIP despite giving up lots of barrels and hard contact, which tells us he’s done a great job of just barely avoiding perfect-perfect batted balls. Henderson just knows how to pitch, which is why his splits are so consistent across the board.
He has given up as many as three runs only twice this season, and he’s walked two or more batters only three times. Of the 21 earned runs he’s allowed, 12 of them have come on the 11 homers he’s given up. Yes, that means he’s been the victim of 11 solo homers and one two-run job. The kid rarely makes mistakes, and he almost never takes significant damage.
The fact that he’s a strike-thrower is good for the Cubs, but there’s no familiarity in this matchup either way. Unless you want to count Gabriel Arias going 1-for-2 with a strikeout against him, which I don’t. There’s not as much of a helping wind, though the right-to-left breeze could aid righties a little. As much as I’d love to predict that the young guy gets rattled on this big stage, I’m very concerned that he’ll carve.
We’ll find out at 6:15pm CT on FOX and The Score.
