Clay Holmes Throws Third Scoreless Outing in Last Four Starts
Clay Holmes could have had the worst night of his career and still won on Monday night, but his fourth straight excellent start ensured the Cubs’ nine home runs created a massive rout. After shaking off the rust from a two-month IL stint in his first Cubs start, Holmes has allowed only one total run over his last four. Since joining the Cubs in a deadline trade with the Mets that included outfielder Tyrone Taylor — who has also excelled with his new team — Holmes has a 1.55 ERA with a 67.5% groundball rate.
Even more important in light of all the hand-wringing over Shōta Imanaga‘s propensity for giving up the longball is that Holmes hasn’t allowed a homer since the third batter he faced as a Cub. That’s a stretch of 28 innings and counting, which is exactly what the Cubs are going to need come playoff time. While you would like to see much better than a 16.2% strikeout rate from a pitcher whose career mark is about six points higher, Holmes has been punching more tickets lately.
His eight strikeouts against the Brewers tied a season high and were just two shy of his career-best from April 8 last year against the Marlins. He’s never struck out nine, though he’s pitched as a reliever in 309 of his 358 MLB appearances. And even when he was picking up 74 saves over three seasons in the Bronx, he was never an elite strikeout pitcher.
Outside of one season with the Pirates in which he became a curveball-first pitcher, Holmes has relied mainly on his sinker to get whiffs and grounders. His usage of that pitch peaked in 2022 with the Yankees, when he threw it over 80% of the time. The next two seasons saw him dial up the slider as high as 43.5%, but the big shift came when the Mets signed him to be a starter.
That meant dusting off the cutter he hadn’t thrown since his rookie year in 2018, the curve he scrapped after ’21, and the seldom-used changeup he did away with in ’19. Those pitches all see at least 7% usage now, and Holmes was more than willing to spread the love around against the Brewers. His eighth strikeout of the game came on a nasty change — one of 10 he threw on the evening — that dove away from Brice Turang‘s bat for a big swing and miss.
Clay Holmes, Dirty 86mph Changeup. ?
8th K pic.twitter.com/9rVDRdKhxv
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 1, 2026
“Just really being able to use some offspeed effectively when I needed to, especially tonight,” the righty said after the game. “Was able to throw the sweeper, the curveball, and the cutter/slider, all for strikes, for chase. Really took some pressure off the sinker tonight, and it was nice to be able to show a little different look and see how it worked. I think just having the arsenal to go to when I need it is where I feel like I’m at right now.”
Holmes only threw his sinker 38 times, good for a 37.6% usage that was well below his normal rate. He made up for that by throwing the cutter more than he has most of the season, both in terms of raw volume (22) and percentage (21.8%). Over his last five starts for the Mets prior to suffering a leg fracture on a comebacker, Holmes threw the cutter only 12 total times. The only game in which he’s thrown it more than Monday night was six days ago against the Cardinals (25, 26.9%).
Craig Counsell is under no pressure to name a playoff rotation just yet, let alone identify a Game 1 starter, but Holmes’ ability to keep the ball on the ground makes him the early favorite. You can just see how his confidence has grown each time out with the support of an elite defense and offense, which allows him to pitch without fear. There’s no need to force something, just shift the repertoire to what’s working and let your teammates take care of the rest.
That’s fun, and I really hope Holmes can keep it up through at least this season. He’s got a $12 million player option for 2027, so maybe he and the Cubs will work out a way to keep him around a little longer.
