Counsell Provides Support After Imanaga Sets Ignominious Record in Loss

Not to be outdone by Pete Crow-Armstrong‘s three homers in Saturday’s win over the Reds, Shōta Imanaga added three dingers of his own in Sunday’s loss. The problem is that his counted against his team. So just as PCA vaulted himself into pole position for the NL MVP, Imanaga jumped into the lead for dongs surrendered. While former teammate Jameson Taillon still leads MLB with 2.79 HR/9, Imanaga is tied with Jeffrey Springs of the Athletics with 33 hit against him.

Sunday night was also the sixth time this season that Imanaga had allowed at least three home runs in a game this season, which is now the most ever by a lefty in a single season in MLB history. Like forever. That’s the kind of record you can really hang your hat on, like when Happy Gilmore tried to stab someone with his skate. Nobody else did that before.

You can’t hang your hat without a hook, which is exactly what the Cubs need to consider doing with Imanaga the rest of the way. And I don’t just mean the way Craig Counsell had to pull him two innings into his previous start because he’d already thrown 72 pitches. I’m also not talking about just the postseason roster, though the manager publicly backed Imanaga following the game.

“He’s not having a bad season,” Counsell said. “He’s having a pretty decent season. I wouldn’t say that at all, no. We need Shōta. We need Shōta to be good for us. So we have to work at helping him be better.”

I’m not sure I agree with that assessment, as Imanaga now sports a career-worst 4.01 ERA with a 4.79 FIP that says he’s actually benefiting from a little good luck. Though his 35.0% chase rate is in the 89th percentile and his 29.2% whiff rate is in the 80th, he’s hanging so many pitches that the swings and misses hardly matter.

“The mistake pitches that I can’t throw end up in zones that they’re going to hit,” Imanaga said through translator Edwin Stanberry. “And here, those swings don’t end up in singles; those end up in home runs. There’s a lot of frustration within myself. But I need to be the one to figure it out.”

It would be one thing if we were talking about an aberration taking place over a handful of starts, but we’re talking about a career-spanning trend. The Cubs knew Imanaga was going to give up homers when they signed him, something Counsell acknowledged on Sunday, so the hope was that he’d balance them out with the rest of his stuff. And while he is striking out more batters than last year, his home run rate has gone up as well.

We’re talking about a guy who became unplayable late in the season because he was putting the Cubs in holes every time out. Imanaga leads all of baseball with 91 home runs allowed since joining the Cubs in 2024, and his 1.82 HR/9 is better than only Springs (1.92). Imanaga has given up at least one homer in six straight starts, though the Cubs have managed to go 4-2 against the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, White Sox, Mariners, and Reds in that stretch.

But when it comes to choosing who you want on the mound in a big game, you can’t conflate correlation with causation. Imanaga only completed six innings in one of those games, and he had a no-decision in four of them. The real problem for him is that there’s almost no in-between: He’s either really good or really bad, and the possibility of the latter means Counsell can’t risk running him out there.

I’m not to the point of suggesting that Imanaga should be designated for assignment, but I sure as hell wouldn’t put him on a playoff roster if the decision had to be made tomorrow. Counsell said the Cubs want to try to get him right, which makes sense because left ain’t working. If something doesn’t turn around immediately, Imanaga will need to be left…off the team.

Your bullets matter so much more in the postseason, and Onyx will tell you that pitching Imanaga is like playing Russian roulette with an automatic. Will it be a great start with just a solo shot, or one of those games where the bleachers are being peppered by opposing shells? I’d rather that not be a decision Counsell has to make, especially with Colin Rea and Javier Assad both available.