Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/31/26): Holmes Starting Hot One with Division on Line

It’s hot as hell across the Midwest, which is fitting since the Cubs’ chances of winning the division are about as strong as a snowball’s chance of remaining in solid form. They trail the Brewers by eight games heading into Monday’s action, so even sweeping the next seven games in 10 days against their rivals won’t flip the standings. At this point, it’s all about survival. The Cubs are tied with the Phillies for the top Wild Card spot, and the Diamondbacks sit 4.5 games back.

The Phils are in Arizona for the next three days, so things could change dramatically if these respective series play out a certain way. All that really matters, however, is that the Cubs split these four games at Wrigley. They’ve got the right man on the mound to get things started, as Clay Holmes has allowed just one earned run over his last three starts. He’s a groundball machine, which the Cubs may need with the wind blowing firmly out to center tonight.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, followed by Seiay Suzuki in right, and Alex Bregman at third. Tyrone Taylor cleans up in left, Nico Hoerner is at short, Michael Busch is at first, and Carson Kelly does the catching. Miguel Amaya serves as the DH with Matt Shaw playing second.

Opposing them is 25-year-old lefty Kyle Harrison, who could lay claim to the title of staff ace if not for Jacob Misiorowski. Harrison is in his first season with the Brewers after coming over from the Red Sox in February as part of the deal that sent Caleb Durbin and Andruw Monasterio to Boston. A third-round pick by the Giants in 2020 out of De La Salle High School near San Francisco, Harrison moved quickly through the system to debut in 2023.

He made 24 starts the following season, but was traded to the Sox in the Rafael Devers deal in June of 2015. His numbers between both teams were the best of his career to that point, though he spent much of the season in the minors and was in a swing role when called up. Harrison has taken a huge step forward this season, with improvements to his strikeout rate, walk rate, ERA, FIP, and fastball velocity.

This is the second game in a row in which the Cubs have faced a young hurler who relies almost exclusively on two pitches. While Harrison is slightly more varied than Chase Burns, he’s still going to throw about 60% heaters and 30% slurves. He’s got a changeup he throws about 9% of the time, but he has no feel for it. Then there’s a sinker that he’s thrown only 38 times in 21 starts, few enough to make me think they’re mislabeled fastballs.

The southpaw has natural arm-side run to his 95 mph four-seam, making it play a lot like a typical two-seam, and he loves to throw it up in the zone. The 82 mph slurve has good depth and sweep, making it an effective pitch regardless of which box an opposing batter occupies. That has helped him pitch to pretty even platoon splits, but his home/road numbers vary wildly.

Harrison has allowed a .177/.234/.271 slash at AmFam Field, but gives up a .280/.337/.497 line as a visitor. Not that the Cubs have had anything to do with that, as they were the victims of Harrison’s best game to date back on May 20 at Wrigley. He went seven scoreless innings with two hits allowed while striking out 11 and walking only one. Things weren’t much better in Milwaukee on June 27, as he gave up two runs with nine strikeouts over five innings.

For his career against these Cubs hitters, Harrison has allowed a paltry .434 OPS with 19 strikeouts and just two walks. PCA has an 1.192 OPS against lefties at Wrigley this season, but he’s 0-for-5 with four strikeouts against Harrison. If the Cubs can stay on that breaking ball, they might have a shot in this one.

First pitch is at 7:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.