Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/30/26): Imanaga Starting as Bats Try to Cool Burns
The Cubs put on an offensive clinic in yesterday’s win, forcing the Reds to finish the game with a catcher on the mound throwing eephus balls. That’s largely because Pete Crow-Armstrong put his stamp on the game with a leadoff homer and two subsequent dingers to distance himself from the rest of the pack. He’s now at 9.1 fWAR, making him the only position player above 6.5 at this point. Only two other players are above 5.0 fWAR, and only five have more than half of PCA’s mark.
Dude has lapped the field, and he shows no signs of slowing down with a month to go. Craig Counsell might even want to start giving him some work on the mound just to strengthen his MVP case and take a little pressure off the bullpen. It’d be great if Shota Imanaga could ensure that his relievers won’t be taxed too heavily, especially after he lasted just two innings in the Cubs’ lone win against the Mariners last week.
The lefty was wildly inefficient in that one, needing 72 pitches to record six outs. That’s what happens when you walk two and give up five hits. Imanaga has pitched very well against the Reds in the past, so more of the same would be nice.
PCA is in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman plays third. Ian Happ patrols left, Nico Hoerner is at second, Pedro Ramírez is at second, and Michael Conforto serves as the DH. Miguel Amaya bats last at catcher.
They’re seeing 23-year-old righty Chase Burns for the first time this season and just the second time ever. He worked just over an inning of relief in late September last season, giving up a run on three hits. Burns is tied for fourth in MLB with 14 wins, which is all the more impressive when considering that his team is eight games below .500 coming into this one. His 2.77 ERA isn’t out of line with his 3.11 FIP, and his .289 BABIP against isn’t indicative of too much good luck.
Though Burns gives up a lot of hard contact in the air, his 98 mph fastball and elite 90 mph slider generate lots of chases and whiffs. His 90 mph changeup has been pretty bad, but he throws it very infrequently. Having his kind of success with just two pitches tells you just how good this kid’s stuff really is. The cut-ride fastball works up in the zone and accounts for about 56% of his pitches, while the slider gets a lot of depth to cut a red swath through his location heat map starting from the lower glove-side corner and moving down to the dirt.
Burns is an over-the-top thrower with a 53-degree arm angle that is among the steepest in the game. Only eight other righties have higher angles, so he provides a different look for hitters. I do think he’s going to need to figure out that changeup in order to have long-term success, especially since he sacrifices extension with his mechanics. That said, we’re talking about the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft who needed only 66 innings in the minors before being called up.
His 4.57 ERA in 43.1 MLB innings last season was a bit of a mirage, as his 2.65 FIP was almost half a run lower than this year. The BABIP bug bit him pretty hard in that limited experience, but those issues are behind him. Burns has dominated righties, much of which comes from his work at home, walking them far less often and limiting their slugging.
His overall performance has been worse on the road, and there’s a decent wind blowing out to center. There’s also rain in the area that is expected to pick up around game time before clearing out an hour or so after. Fingers crossed for an uneventful evening in that regard.
First pitch is scheduled for 6:20pm CT on NBC/Peacock and The Score.
