Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/29/26): Gausman Playing Life Preserver Against Reds

According to Chris Kamka, official guru of research and nuggetry for Cubs baseball on Marquee, the Cubs were 19-0 this season when collecting at least 13 hits. That streak was at 27 games going back to 2025. It ended when they fumbled the bag yet again, allowing the Reds to overwhelm them as the bullpen gave up eight runs in four innings of work. There’s now an eight-game gap atop the NL Central, with just one game separating the Cubs and Phillies in the Wild Card.

Chicago’s starters have actually been pitching really well lately, but all that talk about how the starters aren’t as important because you shorten their outings in the postseason comes across as bunk. Daniel Palencia looked incredible in punching out the first two batters he faced on eight pitches, then he gave up a homer to TJ Friedl — who came into the game with a 33 wRC+ and at least -0.8 fWAR and had just cleared waivers — that deflated every ounce of momentum from the Cubs’ four-run 8th inning.

Jacob Webb has blown saves in each of his last two appearances, and Trent Thornton just allowed five earned runs on two homers before completing an inning of work. Aaron Civale has been the Cubs’ most reliable reliever since he was acquired on July 18 after being designated for assignment by the Athletics. Yes, the same Athletics that are a game away from the worst record in baseball and who’ve given up an MLB-high 204 homers (which is only two more than the Cubs).

The headline says that Kevin Gausman needs to play the role of life preserver, but his performance hardly matters when the relievers all act like Quint from Jaws. Then again, Gausman did get credit for his team’s only win in Arizona by pitching seven innings of shutout baseball while his offense hammered out seven runs. Getting immediate run support might not be the key to the game, but it sure would make fans feel better.

I’d love nothing more than for my little rant here to come off looking foolish and petty when the dust settles.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, Alex Bregman is at third, and Michael Busch plays first. Nico Hoerner is the shortstop, Matt Shaw handles right field, Tyrone Taylor is in left, and Pedro Ramírez is at second. Carson Kelly is the catcher for this one.

They’re opposed by lefty Andrew Abbott, whose disappointing season has gotten even worse here in August. Through five starts this month, he’s given up 17 earned runs in 28.1 innings while striking out just 20 batters with 14 walks. That’s in line with his overall results, which see him striking out fewer batters and walking more than ever before.

It appeared as though he’d recovered his form in the first half, as he was pitching to a 2.86 ERA over 13 starts prior to facing the Cubs in the last game before the break. Then he gave up four runs in as many innings while walking and striking out three apiece. His fastball has been downright bad, and his changeup and curve have been pretty ineffective. That leaves the sweeper as his only really strong pitch, but he throws it mainly to lefties.

Abbott’s arm slot is up at least three degrees from previous seasons, and my theory is that it’s costing him by creating too much vertical movement. You often see coaches and pitchers chasing vert at lower levels by trying to get their arm slot up higher, but there’s been a trend more recently among high-level instructors of dropping down lower to a more natural position based on how the pitcher’s body wants to move. Maybe that’s the case with Abbott and being at 51 degrees is best for him.

The results say otherwise, however, and he’s missing below the zone very frequently on his sweeper and curve. Both pitches are getting a lot more depth than last year, roughly four inches, and the curve is playing much worse as a result. A far bigger problem is the four-seam that has gained a tiny bit of vert while losing over two inches of arm-side movement.

That means it’s leaking over the heart of the zone much more frequently than last season, when he was able to dot the arm-side edge to avoid hard contact. Abbot’s Savant sliders for average exit velo, chase rate, and hard-hit percentage have all changed dramatically from bright red last season to blue or gray this year. He’s been pretty split-neutral outside of walking righties at a much higher clip, and there aren’t any major differences in his home/road numbers.

The Cubs should have an advantage with the wind blowing steadily out to center this afternoon, provided they don’t serve up a bunch of homers themselves. First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.