Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/28/26): Wild Card Leaders Look to Quiet Lowder, Reds

The Cubs still lead the Wild Card race despite their poor results on the road over the last week, and now they begin what could be the most important stretch of their season. Though catching the Brewers has become increasingly unrealistic, they need to keep pushing to maintain a cushion between themselves and the hard-charging playoff contenders chasing them. That starts with three against the Reds, all of which are important.

David Peterson is back in the rotation for his second turn following a brief demotion to the bullpen that felt unnecessary at the time. The move looked even worse when Edward Cabrera imploded due to a blister he failed to disclose, then went back to the bullpen. All Peterson did was throw six innings of two-run ball against the Mariners that went for naught when the bullpen couldn’t hold a 4-2 lead in the 9th.

The lefty has generated a nearly 62% grounder rate over five August appearances, and he’ll need to keep that up against a team that can mash with the best of them. The wind should be somewhat neutral, blowing right-to-left at 9-12 mph, and it should be a perfect late-summer afternoon at Wrigley. After the frustrations in Arizona, you’d really love to see the bats bust out early for the home team.

Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right and Michael Busch at first. Alex Bregman handles the hot corner, Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner plays short, and Pedro Ramírez takes second. Michael Conforto is the DH and Carson Kelly is behind the plate.

They’re up against the No. 7 overall pick in the 2023 draft, Rhett Lowder, a Wake Forest product who has faced the Cubs twice this season. The first of those was an abbreviated start on May 7 that saw him allow three earned runs in as many innings. Though he only gave up one hit, he walked four with just one strikeout. Lowder then tossed two hitless, scoreless innings of relief on July 12. He once again had one strikeout and walked two, which has been the tale of his season.

Lowder has struggled with both command and control, resulting in a low 17.4% strikeout rate and 9.0% walk rate. Among the 108 MLB pitchers with at least 100 innings this season, Lowder’s 1.93 K/BB ratio is better than only 11 of them. The 85 mph slider he throws about 27% of the time is one of the main culprits there, as it frequently lands out of the zone due to its depth.

After generating huge strikeout numbers in the minors, Lowder is among the lowest in MLB when it comes to chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. Big leaguers have been able to spit on the slider because he just can’t locate it. His 94-94 mph sinker and four-seam have been much better, though he has a tendency to leave them both middle-middle a little too often. Both have good arm-side action, but his below-average velocity and short extension create little to no deception.

That’s particularly true when facing left-handed hitters, who carry a slightly lower average while reaching base and slugging much better than their right-handed counterparts. For whatever reason, Lowder is also much worse when pitching away from his hitter-friendly home ballpark. Lefty hitters are slashing .307/.405/.514 against him when he’s a visitor, which sets up very nicely for the Cubs today.

Lowder’s repertoire also features an 86 mph changeup that has gotten poor results despite getting serious depth and ASR. Like the slider, the problem appears to be location. Both pitches land out of the zone so frequently that hitters can easily lay off once they pick them up. The four-seam is his only pitch with any degree of red in the upper third of the strike zone heat maps, so you can just about guarantee that everything is going to be down.

The Cubs have struggled to hit him so far, but I think that’s more a function of the limited exposure. Based on the overall results, I can’t imagine they’ll have much trouble this afternoon. Famous last words.

First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.