Shelby Miller’s Incredible Comeback Gains Steam, Jaxon Wiggins Strengthens Case for Bullpen Role
Back in 2021, Shelby Miller was little more than a punchline about former Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart saying he was a $200 million player because he’d been traded for Jason Heyward. And that was from a deal seven years prior, when Miller went from St. Louis to Atlanta. His time there was short-lived, as he was traded to Arizona as part of the return for Dansby Swanson, which is when Stewart made his claim about Miller’s value. The righty, who was taken No. 19 overall by the Cards in 2009, posted a 6.35 ERA in parts of three seasons for Arizona as he battled multiple elbow issues.
Miller had a 9.24 ERA as a swingman for the Rangers in 2019 before being released, then signed a minor league deal with the Brewers in July of that year. After not playing in 2020 due to the pandemic, he elected free agency and signed a minors deal with the Cubs. His contract was selected on April 14, and he made three relief appearances with a 31.50 ERA and one strikeout to five walks before hitting the IL with a low back strain. He was activated and subsequently designated for assignment just over a month later.
If you had told me five years ago that I’d be looking forward to Miller’s return engagement with the Cubs, I’d have called you an idiot. He couldn’t stay healthy, not that it mattered because of how bad he was on the rare occasions when he could take the mound, and he was on the wrong side of 30. Most guys would have hung it up, but Miller kept pushing.
The Pirates signed him for the end of the ’21 season, then the Yankees picked him up briefly in 2022 before releasing him. Miller logged seven forgettable innings for the Giants in ’22, and then something changed when he joined the Dodgers the following season. It wasn’t his 93.5 mph fastball, which still sat right around his career average. Nor was it improved health, as he missed over two months with a neck issue.
The key was that Miller had adopted the splitter as his main secondary weapon. He had done away with the curve, sinker, and changeup in ’21, then stopped throwing the cutter in ’22. After going with a slider (55.1%) and four-seam (44.9%) with the Giants, he mixed in over 26% splitters with more fastballs and fewer sliders. The result was a 1.71 ERA over a new career high of 36 appearances.
Miller pitched in 51 games for the Tigers the following season, then rejoined the Diamondbacks in 2025. He pitched well enough to spur the Brewers to trade for him in spite of a right forearm strain, and he made 11 relief appearances for Milwaukee before undergoing his second elbow reconstruction in October. In February of this year, the Cubs saw fit to sign the 35-year-old to a two-year deal under the assumption that he wouldn’t pitch for them until 2027.
Yet somehow, Miller is pitching at Triple-A Iowa with a fastball that is sitting nearly 96 mph. That is harder than he has ever thrown at any point in his career, mind you, and his 7+ feet of extension means it plays a little faster. He’s dialed back the splitter to around 13% in favor of a sweeper/slider mix that makes up about a third of his pitches, and he’s locating well with only one walk to six strikeouts.
There are some concerns about allowing three earned runs on five hits over four innings, but I’m incredibly impressed by the fact that he was able to come back so quickly with more velo than ever. Assuming some of the mistakes are a matter of rust, Miller could provide help down the stretch once rosters expand. The same could be said for Jaxon Wiggins, who struggled with both injuries and performance this season before being shifted to the bullpen.
The Cubs will obviously want to keep their top pitching prospect in the mix as a starter long-term, but he becomes very interesting in the immediate future as a reliever. After retiring the side in order on Wednesday, Wiggins has now pitched three hitless innings of relief with five strikeouts and three walks. His fastball is up to the 97-98 mph range and he’s also narrowed his repertoire lately.
Rather than trying to force the changeup and curveball, he’s gone almost exclusively fastball/slider over the last three outings. That’s why you have to look at more than just the season-long numbers that come from a developmental strategy rather than a competitive one. I’m not sure who needs to hear this, but pitching in the minors isn’t just about trying to have the lowest ERA.
While the odds aren’t incredibly high that one or even both of these righties will be up with the Cubs this season, September roster expansion makes a promotion or two that much more likely. For Wiggins, it might be more about getting a taste of the bigs and seeing how the veteran pitchers go about their business. But for Miller, it would be about redemption and rebirth. To see him back in the bigs after everything he’s fought through would be incredible.
And even if it doesn’t happen for him this season, Miller will be back with the Cubs next year. So take that, 2021 Evan. Maybe Smoke will get the last laugh after all.
