Quantifying Hope: Cubs Enter Weekend with 99% Playoff Odds

The loss to wrap up the road trip was a bit of a bummer, but the Cubs have firmly entrenched themselves in the postseason picture at this point. With 98.8% odds heading into the weekend, it’s become a two-horse race for the division and a chance to play in October. The Pirates and Reds have effectively been left for dead, and the Cardinals will be cast further aside if the Cubs take care of business at Wrigley.

It’s perhaps mildly concerning that Kevin Gausman got roughed up on Thursday, but it’s just one game. The same could be said for Clay Holmes‘ Cubs debut, especially since it was his first MLB action in over two months. That said, the two big deadline additions were not brought in simply to eat innings. Getting some other pitchers back will help, as it eases pressure on the starters to go deep into games, and we should see Edward Cabrera activated before long.

Exactly when and in what capacity is yet to be determined, with timing and readiness still being weighed. Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy had previously indicated that they’d use him as a starter before shifting him to a relief role for the stretch run and postseason, but Bruce Levine reported that he’d move immediately to the back of the pen. As usual, Craig Counsell was cagey about the situation

“We’ll make those decisions when we absolutely have to, I think is the best way to say it,” Counsell noted before Thursday’s game.

Cabrera will be with the Cubs in Chicago and could be available to start as early as Monday against the White Sox, which is why there’s no pressure to decide on anything right now. They might want to give David Peterson another start before determining how to proceed. Though Peterson is 4-1 since coming over from the Mets, he’s got a low strikeout rate while giving up exactly one hit per inning over 43 frames. He’s also worked in relief eight times this season, which is six more than Cabrera has in his entire career.

This is all part of the inevitable shuffle that comes when you acquire several pitchers just as several more are preparing to come off the IL. The Cubs will still have to accommodate 3-5 more arms, all of whom figure to work in relief, by the end of the season if things go according to plan. It’s a good problem, though making multiple adjustments in short order can create unexpected pitfalls.

But hey, that’s why Counsell is being paid $8 million per season. Time to get the job done.