Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/11/26): Imanaga Revenge Game
Shōta Imanaga‘s first start of the season came against the Nationals at Wrigley, and he ended up surrendering four runs over five innings in a loss. Now, a little over four months later, he’s looking to exact revenge by extending a streak of seven starts with two or fewer runs allowed. He’s given up only eight total runs in that span, all earned, for a 1.77 ERA that belies his 3-3 record. While the longball is still an issue, walking only six batters means the damage has been very limited.
Tonight’s game comes after the Cubs’ first break in 17 days, but this isn’t as soft a landing as they might have hoped for. The Nats are only two games under .500 after winning three in a row, and their 643 runs scored are 29 ahead of the second-place Cubs. Of course, trading Luis Garcia Jr. and losing James Wood to an oblique strain has taken some of the air out of those offensive sails.
Those two have accounted for at least 23% of the Nats’ total output with 148 runs scored, 149 RBI, and 53 homers. Not having to face either of them makes the task a little easier for Imanaga and the rest of the staff, but they shouldn’t look past these three games.
And hey, this is a chance for the visiting batters to close the gap on their hosts across multiple categories. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman is at third. Ian Happ takes left, Nico Hoerner mans second, and Michael Conforto is the DH. Carson Kelly does the catching with Dansby Swanson batting last at short.
They’re facing fourth-year man Jake Irvin, a big righty who was selected in the fourth round out of Oklahoma in 2018. He’s been a pretty standard back-of-the-rotation guy for the Nats, with a 4.98 ERA that features too many home runs with modest strikeout and walk rates. Those strikeouts are actually up significantly this season, but it’s got nothing to do with an increase in velo.
Irvin sits a little shy of 93 mph, which is down from his first two seasons. My first thought was that he might have dropped off due to the shoulder strain that shut him down for two months, but he was throwing harder prior to hitting the IL than he has been in two starts since returning. Those recent starts have gone poorly, with seven runs allowed and only four strikeouts to go with as many walks in 10.1 innings.
Irvin throws from a low three-quarter slot and gets very good extension, which helps his stuff to play up a little bit. Not enough, though, as his third-percentile chase rate indicates. He’s also near the bottom of the league when it comes to giving up barrels. That’s because he gets very little depth on his breaking stuff and ends up hanging lots of pitches in the zone.
Oddly enough, he’s pitching to massive reverse splits this season after getting more traditional results in the past. Right-handed batters are slashing .276/.333/.448 so far, with most of the damage coming at home. Lefties are well behind for the time being, though this is another case in which a fair bit of correction appears to be imminent.
The Cubs have hit Irvin well in the past, with an .826 aggregate OPS and one homer by each of six different players across 105 total at-bats. Everything about this matchup swings in the Cubs’ favor, but the games aren’t played on paper. We’ll see how it plays out at 5:45pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
