Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/5/26): PCA at DH, Imanaga Shoving for Sweep

I am probably not alone in being at least mildly surprised by the way the Cubs have taken care of business against the Dodgers, especially with Tarik Skubal on the mound last night. Funny what happens when you’re clicking in all facets of the game, which was not the case against the Yankees. As nice as it would have been to gain ground on the Brewers, taking at least two of three from the Dodgers is a big deal.

Now the Cubs have a chance to sweep in what looks like the best matchup of the series on paper. Shota Imanaga hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his last six starts, over which time he’s got 31 strikeouts and only six walks. Allowing 34 hits in just under 36 innings is a little scary, but there are only four home runs in that mix. The Dodgers are one of the better teams in MLB against left-handed pitching, so Imanaga has his work cut out for him.

Does anyone want to take a guess at which team is the best against lefties? That would be the Cubs, who lead MLB with a .353 OBP, .792 OPS, and 121 wRC+ in those situations. That bodes well for Pete Crow-Armstrong at DH, Seiya Suzuki in right, and Alex Bregman at third to start things off. Carson Kelly is the catcher, Michael Busch is at first, Nico Hoerner is at second, and Ian Happ patrols left. Dansby Swanson mans short, and Tyrone Taylor is in center.

The Dodgers are sending lefty Eric Lauer to the mound for his 10th appearance with them after he was acquired from the Blue Jays for cash in mid-May. That followed his designation for assignment, which came because he’d put up a 6.69 ERA with 11 homers allowed in 36.1 innings. Lauer has been a different pitcher with LA, going 5-0 with a 2.96 ERA over almost 52 innings. That seems really great, but there appears to be a massive dose of good luck involved.

Lauer’s 5.13 FIP and paltry .195 BABIP against indicate that he’s due to swing back closer to those Toronto numbers soon. He was at just a 16.0% strikeout rate with the Jays, which was better than only 15 of 131 MLB pitchers, but he’s been at 14.7% with the Dodgers. Interestingly enough, that latter mark is better than 16 of 242 pitchers since May 11. One of those below him is Cubs reliever Trent Thornton (12.5%), who may not survive the coming purge.

There’s some very odd noise in those numbers, though, as Lauer’s 32.6% chase rate is in the 71st percentile. Not only that, but his 11.2% barrel rate is in the eighth percentile despite being in the 63rd percentile for average exit velo (88.1 mph) and the 73rd percentile for hard-hit rate (35.0%). What should really work in the Cubs’ favor is a very high fly ball rate with the wind blowing out briskly to center.

Lauer delivers from a three-quarter slot and gets less than six feet of extension, throwing his 91 mph fastball about 44% of the time. His 87 mph cutter makes up 20% of his repertoire, then there’s an 84-85 mph changeup, a 76 mph curve, and an 83 mph slider. None of those pitches are particularly bad, nor are any of them very good. He’s a nibbler, as you can probably imagine based on the lack of deception from his velo and extension, which helps to explain the disparity in his contact numbers.

All of the deepest red on his location heat maps falls on one of the four borders of the zone, so he can get good results if he’s nailing his spots. But when he misses, those mistakes can get ugly. I’m torn a little here as to whether the Cubs will go off or shuffle along meekly as they somehow seem to do more often than they should against pitchers like this.

We’ll find out at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.