Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/1/26): Peterson Trying to Cook Against Fried

Without losing focus on the fact that the Cubs are still playing very well on the whole, these last few games have been tough to watch. They’ve scored just six runs over 29 innings, and four of those came in extras, which should mean that an offensive explosion is in the offing. Perhaps that will come tonight against an unlikely victim. Or perhaps it won’t happen tonight at all, as there’s a lot of precipitation in the forecast through at least the mid-evening.

Outside of one atrocious start, David Peterson has been quite good since coming over from the Mets. He hasn’t pitched the prettiest games, with 10 walks to 12 strikeouts, but he’s limited hits well enough to produce three wins in five games. Peterson has allowed only five runs in his four starts outside of that stinker against the Cards, and being similarly stingy tonight would sure help.

They’re facing lefty Max Fried, who’s on the bump for the third time since being activated from a nearly 10-week IL stint due to a bone bruise in his left elbow. He picked up right where he left off, pitching five scoreless innings against the Pirates and then giving up three runs to the White Sox. How is that right where he left off? Because in 12 starts this season, Fried has allowed either zero, three, or five runs (all earned). He hasn’t given up one or two in a game, nor has he surrendered four or six.

It’s a very odd game log, and his overall line is a bit perplexing in terms of what the expected metrics say versus what you might think they should say. On one hand, his 2.57 FIP says he’s pitching even better than his 3.23 ERA indicates. But his 22.5% strikeout rate sitting near a career low while his 8.1% walk rate sits near a career high says he’s getting away with a lot of mistakes. Same for the .259 BABIP, which is 31 points lower than his historical mark.

But the thing about Fried is that the dude just knows how to pitch. He’s got one of most balanced attacks you’ll find, and all of his pitches generate positive value. Well, the fastball is technically at 0.0 overall, with a 0.01 when you drill down to its value per 100 pitches thrown. And when it’s third on the usage list behind the cutter and sinker, there’s no need to split hairs.

Fried throws from a 45-degree angle that is among the highest in the game for a southpaw, though it’s lower than he’s ever been in his career. He was in the 50s during his first three seasons, and has gradually dropped down to this point over the last several years. That may help him to get a little more horizontal movement, particularly with the 80 mph sweeper that is now moving more west-to-east with less depth than in the past.

The 93 mph sinker is a bowling ball with a lot more cut than most; it’s got four fewer inches of arm-side movement than the average, so it fills up the heart of the zone rather than being a pitch that busts lefties on the hands. That actually works in Fried’s favor, as he presents a very different look that includes the ability to front-door them like you’d expect from a cutter or slider.

Fried throws the sinker 47% of the time to left-handed hitters, setting up a sweeper with mild two-plane shape that moves down and across the zone. Being able to tunnel those two has allowed him to hold lefty batters to a .161/.215/.200 slash with no homers so far. Right-handed hitters aren’t much better, slashing .213/.288/.284 with just one homer. The home/road splits offer nothing to suggest Fried needs to sleep in his own bed to be good.

I know I only looked at a couple of his pitches, but there’s not much value in examining the 92 mph cutter he throws 28% of the time to righties. He’s also got a 74 mph curve, an 86 mph changeup that lefties won’t see, and a slider that might just be a misread or a what-the-hell way to keep hitters guessing. Fried is kind of Darvishian, in that he’s got a big bag of tricks that he knows how to use very well.

This is a game where the Cubs will need to take advantage of every mistake they see, because there might not be many. Bregman and Happ have had a lot of success against Fried in the past, though, with the latter going 7-for-11 with 2 homers and just one strikeout. And maybe we’ll see a five instead of a zero.

First pitch is at 7:15pm CT on FOX and The Score.