Quantifying Hope: Cubs Creeping on Brewers with 95% Playoff Odds

It’s funny what happens when you win five of seven games against the two teams directly below you in the divisional standings. Though the Cubs have merely kept pace with the Brewers over the last 10 games, they’ve gained three on both the Cardinals and Pirates, and four on the Phillies for the top Wild Card spot. They’re within shouting distance of the Brewers and there’s a five-game gap between them and the next playoff team, which might be enough to convince both Jed Hoyer and Tom Ricketts to go big at the deadline.

Tarik Skubal big? That’s a tall task, but it’s one the Cubs will at least keep tabs on while weighing their options. It’s a balance between what they’ll get this year, both down the stretch and in the playoffs, with how the cost to add that impact talent will affect future seasons. Having the security of a playoff spot will factor, as will the asking price. Hoyer has plenty of young infielders to spare, though that might not be enough.

Whatever they end up doing, the Cubs’ strong play over the last few weeks has gotten them to a spot where buying is a given. And they’re doing it in a much more sustainable manner than what we saw earlier in the season, which has been nice.

These next six games will be a real litmus test, even if neither the Yankees nor the Dodgers are operating at full strength. But here’s the thing: The standings don’t care who’s hurt and who’s slumping. All that matters is winning games, and doing so against a pair of winning teams would be a nice coup. Speaking of Skubal, he might be in uniform for Monday’s game one way or the other.

We know both teams will look at least a little different by then, with the Cubs targeting at least one starter and a high-leverage reliever. Just three more days before we find out what Hoyer’s got up his sleeve.