Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/22/26): Rea Day for Rubber Game

After dropping the series opener in extras, the Cubs forced the Tigers to cover two innings with position players. With respect for the notion that guys need to get their stats however they can, I’d just as soon see these games forfeited when you’re putting a second baseman on the mound. As funny as it was to see Craig Counsell challenge the call at first to negate a double play and give Seiya Suzuki an extra RBI, there’s nothing appealing about a bunch of eephus pitches with an 81 mph fastball mixed in.

The bigger point is that the Cubs won to even the series, gaining a game on the Brewers, Cardinals, and Phillies in the process. Now comes what could be a tougher matchup than what you might think, one that favors the visitors on paper. Colin Rea has been his regular dependable self lately, which is really all you can ask for. Giving the Cubs 5-6 innings with four or fewer runs allowed should give them a fighting chance.

I’m just clipping an image of the lineup because most of my day is being spent on the road to Slippery Rock, PA. My son has a prospect camp there on Thursday, which is less about his chances at playing D2 baseball and more about having a little road trip to cap off the summer. Just a little adventure for us, plus a chance for him to re-familiarize himself with the whole showcase cadence.

We’ve got another one at Olivet Nazarene University in August, which will be immediately followed by a drive to St. Louis to see Public Enemy and Guns N’ Roses in concert. I’m already prepping for what will be a late commute home, but really looking forward to that weekend.

Anywho, here’s the lineup:

They’re up against Keider Montero, who has already set a new high for MLB innings pitched with 100.2 over 21 appearances. This will be his 16th start, which ties the high-water mark he set as a rookie in 2024, but his first since June 26. He’s made five relief appearances since, all but one of which lasted at least two innings. While he won’t be fully stretched out, he’s built up plenty of confidence in his ability to miss bats.

That isn’t apparent from his metrics, which feature an 18% whiff rate (4th percentile), 27.3% chase rate (18th), and 17.5% strikeout rate (15th). Since being moved back to the bullpen, however, his strikeout rate has jumped by a full 10 points as he’s tweaked his pitch usage a bit. To be clear, Montero’s stuff was working perfectly fine even when the Ks were way down.

His pitching run value is in MLB’s 98th percentile, thanks to a fastball/sinker combo that is among the best in the game. He’s also got a nasty changeup that he’s actually gotten away from a little more as a reliever. The sinker is seeing a lot more usage, but a lot of that comes from being deployed more situationally. Unlike Monday starter Jack Flaherty, whose repertoire remains the same, Montero is a totally different pitcher depending on who’s in the box.

Right-handed hitters will see a heavy dosage of sinkers, roughly 43%, with sliders and four-seams as the main secondaries. Lefties see 41% fastballs with changeups and curves, plus a good number of sliders. Montero gets a lot of glove-side action on his four-seam and slider from his 43-degree arm slot, and he’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard this season. If the wind continues to blow in hard from right, he should be able to do more of the same this evening.

What stands out the most to me about the 26-year-old from Venezuela is that, like Christopher Morel when he first came up, his listed weight is highly inaccurate. Every outlet has him at 6-foot-1 and 145 pounds, which can’t be close to where he’s at these days. It’s funny how they made hitters get laser measured for ABS, but pitchers are still walking around listed at 50 pounds under their apparent walking-around weight.

The Cubs have had a lot of success against this guy in limited action, posting a 1.239 OPS with three homers in just 18 at-bats. He’s been much better lately and could get enough help from the conditions to improve those numbers, but I still like the Cubs to make meatloaf. First pitch is at 7:10pm CT on ESPN and The Score.