Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/20/26): Taillon Returns to Face Familiar Foe
The Cubs managed to take care of business against a mediocre Twins team following a lackluster effort on Friday, and now they face another AL Central opponent in the Tigers. Detroit’s roster is highly imperfect, with an excellent pitching staff being weighed down by a subpar offense. They’re kind of like a mirror image of the Cubs in that way, so the conditions at Wrigley Field could work in the visitors’ favor.
As of this publication, the wind is blowing out to center at 11 mph with gusts up to 17 mph. That’s not a great harbinger for success in Jameson Taillon‘s return after nearly six weeks on the IL with a hamstring strain. His extended absence means he’s no longer the MLB leader in home runs allowed, though Taillon’s unsightly 2.66 HR/9 still leads all pitchers with at least four innings this season.
It wouldn’t be a bad idea for the offense to give him plenty of leeway tonight, starting with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Seiya Suzuki in right. Michael Busch is the first baseman, Alex Bregman gets a break from the field as the DH, Ian Happ is in left, and Nico Hoerner is at second. Pedro Ramirez has earned another start, this time at third, and Dansby Swanson is the shortstop. Miguel Amaya bats last behind the plate.
They’re up against Jack Flaherty, who I’m having a hard time believing is really only 30 years old. The former Cardinal debuted in 2017 at 21 years old and looked like an ace in the making early in his career until injuries limited him from 2020 on. He was traded to the Orioles in 2023, then signed with the Tigers and played with them for a few months before being traded to the Dodgers. He re-signed in Detroit prior to the 2025 season and has posted numbers that make you do the Alonzo Mourning meme.
Always a big strikeout pitcher, Flaherty has maintained an above-average rate despite the slow and steady erosion of his fastball velocity. His repertoire has remained consistent over the years, with the fastball that sits around 93 mph making up around half of his throws. Then it’s the 85 mph slider at about a quarter of the mix, a 78 mph curve at 20%, a 91 mph sinker at 5%, and an 85 mph changeup accounting for the last little bit. Flaherty’s cutty heater has been his most valuable pitch this year, and it’s actually his only offering with positive value.
He’s suffered from both control and command issues so far, spraying the ball around for a 10.8% walk rate that is well above a career average that’s never been stellar. The home run hasn’t hurt him, which is odd in light of his combination of very few grounders and very much hard contact. That runs counter to the rest of his career, so we should probably expect to see him serve up a few more taters as the season rolls on.
One thing that really stands out about Flaherty is that, perhaps more than any other pitcher in MLB, his mix remains almost identical regardless of who’s in the box. Every pitch other than the change is within two percentage points based on splits, and the outlier hardly counts because he has only thrown 39 of them in total. This is just a dude who is comfortable with his routine and who goes out and executes with that confidence every night.
Flaherty has also been on a roll lately, with just four runs allowed over his last four starts. One of those lasted only three innings due to a left peroneal strain that landed him on the IL for a little over two weeks, but his three most recent outings have been strong. That injury involves the tendons running along the outside of the lower leg and ankle, so don’t confuse it with a perineal strain because it taint the same thing.
I was initially surprised to see that this Cubs roster has only 74 total at-bats against Flaherty, but his general lack of innings helps to explain that number. They’ve batted just .216 against him with three homers, 10 walks, and 23 strikeouts, six of which have come from Suzuki in eight tries. I have a feeling those numbers will get better tonight.
First pitch is at 7:05pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
