Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/12/26): Boyd Starting Final Game Before Break
The first half of the season, which is really the first 60% of the season, will come to an end this afternoon in Cincinnati. Matthew Boyd is on the bump for the Cubs, making just his ninth start of the season due to a pair of IL stints that may end up serving him well by the time September rolls around. The lefty seemed to have been running on fumes last year as he approached a career-high innings count after several years of lower workloads due to injury.
Boyd has not faced the Reds this season, and their roster has a total of 42 career at-bats against him. Twelve of those have come from Eugenio Suárez, so there’s not a lot of collective familiarity here. As is often the case in Cincy, this may be a matter of the Cubs’ offense needing to put up enough runs for their pitchers to weather the storm.
Speaking of which, we’re down in the Nashville area dodging rain and lightning for the chance to play our fifth and final game of a tournament that has not gone swimmingly. That’s why things have been spotty and abbreviated on my end, including any draft coverage. Trying to keep up with rounds 5-20 while hoping to play a game before making the five-hour drive home would be a fool’s errand.
Tracking today’s game should be a little easier, especially since I don’t have to go searching for information about the players in question. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right, Alex Bregman at third, and Carson Kelly behind the plate. Michael Busch is at first, Nico Hoerner plays second, Ian Happ is in left, and Dansby Swanson plays right. Kevin Alcántara then gets a rare appearance at DH with a southpaw on the mound for the Reds.
They’re facing lefty Andrew Abbott for the second time this season, after he blanked them in a no-decision a little over two months ago. The 27-year-old burst onto the scene last season following strong campaigns in 2023 and ’24, earning an All-Star nod and finishing eighth in Cy Young voting. After a rocky start to the season, he’s righted the ship and has been pitching to a 2.86 ERA over his last 13 starts.
His strikeout and walk rates are still looking worse than in the past, however, and he tends to give up a lot of hard contact that leaves the yard more often than should be the case for a top-of-the-rotation starter. It’s a group effort between all of his pitches, but the fastball and changeup have been particularly ineffective. The sweeper hasn’t been very good either, giving him negative value on roughly 85% of his pitches.
Abbott throws his fastball most often, with identical frequency between left- and right-handed batters. But the changeup makes up 25% of his pitches to righties, and the sweeper accounts for 47% of his throws to lefties. His splits are back to being relatively even after trending heavily in the reverse direction early, though Abbott has been much worse at home.
Rather than belaboring any of the different metrics on his pitches or how his higher arm slot might be robbing a little of his movement, I’ll just state very plainly that the Cubs need to get it done against him today. It’s that simple. They must find a way to win, whether it’s by grinding Abbott down or by ambushing him early and running away with the game.
First pitch is at 12:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
