Quantifying Hope: Cubs Hovering Near 75% Playoff Odds

Since climbing out of the nadir in early June that saw them dip below 40% playoff odds, the Cubs have pretty much been on cruise control. They’ve gotten as high as 78.5% and as low as 67.4% over the last two weeks, putting them firmly in the low 70s for the most part. That’s the case heading into the final series of the first half against the team with the division’s worst odds.

The Cubs are at 74.9% as of this publication, which puts them 73.5% ahead of the Reds. That’s a huge yikes for the team Terry Francona was supposed to have revived just by being himself. Gee, it’s almost as though you have to have talent and a competent front office in order for any manager to look like he knows what he’s doing.

That’s why the Reds keep Redsing while the Cleveland Guardians remain competitive year after year despite losing Francona and trading away star players.

It would behoove the Cubs to put even more distance between themselves and the Reds over the weekend, as they need to keep themselves in strong Wild Card position. The Brewers have opened up a sizable gap for the division title, so catching them is unlikely, even if it’s still a mathematical possibility. Surging into the break with some easy wins would also allow Craig Counsell to avoid playing Russian Roulette with a bullpen comprised mainly of guys most Cubs fans had never heard of at the start of the season.

Playing in Cincy might also provide a spark for Ian Happ, who tends to be at his best in the city where we’ll surely be reminded that he played his college ball, and some other sluggish hitters. The break should help several Cubs to recalibrate both mentally and physically for the stretch run, and it’ll give Jed Hoyer a little more time to kick tires and turn over rocks.

My hope is that these three games are fun without being competitive. Just hang a bunch of runs on a weak pitching staff and don’t get stuck having to walk them off every night like we saw back in Chicago earlier in the season.