If Sonny Gray Is ‘Dream’ Target, Cubs Might Keep Snoozing
With three games left before the break, the Cubs hold the top Wild Card spot and boast a 3.5-game lead over the Cardinals when it comes to playoff position. Jameson Taillon will be back soon, Edward Cabrera should return at some point in the second half, and Ben Brown remains hopeful that his neck issue will clear up quicker than it did two years ago. Justin Steele has resumed throwing and could be activated at some point, but he won’t be able to stretch out as a starter.
Even if their luck turns and everything works out according to plan on the health front, however, the Cubs will be without a true ace. Not one they can truly count on to be the kind of lockdown starter they’ll need if they want to make a deep postseason run. Such an option may exist on the trade market in Tarik Skubal, though the cost to rent his services for two months may scare Jed Hoyer away. And therein lies the big problem when it comes to the Cubs buying, as the same caveats are there for just about any pitcher they could consider acquiring.
Jeff Passan listed another Tigers pitcher, Casey Mize, as the best deadline fit for the Cubs because he’s relatively inexpensive and figures to be moved as long as Detroit remains out of the race. The 29-year-old righty has also missed several weeks with a lingering right adductor issue, so that could lower the asking price just a bit. He’s having the best season of his career otherwise, with solid strikeout numbers, a low walk rate, and very few homers allowed.
It’s hard to find anyone else out there who checks all of Hoyer’s boxes. Other than perhaps Sonny Gray, who is putting together yet another outstanding campaign despite approaching his 37th birthday. The longtime divisional foe is toiling in relative obscurity for a Red Sox team that has been run into the ground by former Cubs front office member Craig Breslow. Passan named Gray as the Cubs’ “dream” target, though I’m having a hard time seeing eye to eye with him there.
Gray does have a measure of control after this season, but it’s with a $30 million mutual option that includes a $10 million buyout. That’s in addition to around $10 million in salary for this season, which would cost the Cubs even more since they’re already over the first competitive balance tax threshold by around $4 million. Oh, then there’s the fact that Gray would have to waive his no-trade clause.
The Red Sox would probably be willing to eat most of Gray’s salary since the Cardinals are footing $20 million of it, so it’d be a matter of landing on a sliding scale of what makes sense in terms of prospect capital. The Cubs are pretty strapped on that front and are wary of “leaking” value, which could make negotiations tricky. This isn’t like parting with a hefty package for a non-ace who is under very reasonable club control for years, as was the case with José Quintana.
While trading for either Mize or Gray would not be crappy, it would give the Cubs more No. 2s than an airport bathroom. Would that really move the needle when it comes to beating the Phillies in the Wild Card round and then defeating either the Brewers or Dodgers in the next round? I mean, yeah, I guess it would have to when you consider who else the Cubs have right now.
.@CliffFloyd30 thinks the Cubs should trade for Aroldis Chapman and Sonny Gray.
Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/lYeWt7lwar
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 7, 2026
Whether they end up swinging a big trade or standing pat and hoping for better health, the fact of the matter is that this team’s fate depends on how the offense performs. Even pulling off a Gray/Aroldis Chapman combo and landing Skubal — which obviously won’t happen — isn’t going to matter if Pete Crow-Armstrong eventually comes back to earth and the rest of the lineup doesn’t pick up the slack.
That’s why I don’t see Gray as anything approaching a dream. If the Cubs are only going to be willing and able to get that type of pitcher, I’d just as soon they keep snoozing.
