Chicago Cubs Lineup: (7/9/26): Peterson, Bats Try to Ruin Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood

The Cubs have taken the first two games of their series in Baltimore, which is just as everyone had planned it. Seriously, they’re doing exactly what they’re supposed to do. Today’s game, however, will not go according to the original plan because inclement weather in the forecast pushed the start time up five hours. It’s nice when they can do that, unlike during the postseason when national broadcast interests supersede common sense.

Lefty David Peterson hasn’t been quite what the Cubs were hoping for when they acquired him during their trip to Queens. It’s only been two starts, the first of which was quite good, but giving up 10 runs to the Cardinals in his Wrigley Field debut was less than stellar. Peterson needs to keep the ball on the ground this afternoon.

Pete Crow-Armstrong shows no signs of slowing, and he just became the second player in MLB history to have 20 homers and 20 steals prior to the All-Star break in consecutive seasons. The first was former Cubs great Alfonso Soriano, who did it during his first stint with the Yankees in 2002 and ’03. With the way PCA is playing, it almost doesn’t matter who else bats where. But since Craig Counsell has to set a full lineup, we’ll list the rest of it.

Alex Bregman is at third, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Carson Kelly is the DH, and Michael Busch is at first. Nico Hoerner plays second, Ian Happ is in left, Dansby Swanson is the shortstop, and Miguel Amaya does the catching.

They’re up against southpaw Trevor Rogers — Does anyone else feel like the Cubs play an inordinate number of lefty/lefty pitching matchups? — former No. 13 overall pick by the Marlins. Rogers spent just two seasons in the minors before debuting in 2020, then put up a 2.64 ERA with big strikeout numbers and very few homers allowed the following season. He struggled over the next three seasons and was traded to Baltimore, where he posted a 1.81 ERA across 18 starts last year.

He’s never made more than 25 starts or pitched more than 133 MLB innings due to various injuries and illnesses, but this will be his 17th outing as he appears to be in good shape. The same can’t be said for his plummeting strikeout rate and 4.70 ERA, both of which are hampered by his inability to put batters away.

Despite a 76th percentile chase rate, Rogers’ whiff and strikeout rates are in the bottom third of the league at best. The 93 mph fastball that has traditionally been his best pitch just fills the upper third of the zone, and his 87-88 mph changeup frequently hangs at the bottom rather than dropping out for more swings and misses. His 78 mph sweeper likewise tends to hang. Though he is getting nearly 4 inches more vertical drop on it than last season, that breaking ball still lags behind the MLB average by over 3 inches.

Rogers has begun throwing a cutter this season, though its 83 mph velocity indicates that it’s got more sliderish properties. It’s sharper than the sweeper and he keeps it out of the heart of the zone more often, making it a much more effective pitch. It pairs well with the 93 mph sinker that he will also land in the lower glove-side corner.

Rogers has pitched to traditional splits in the past, but the disparity is massive this season. Right-handed hitters are more than 100 points higher across each figure in the slash line, and their .779 OPS is more than 250 points above that of their left-handed counterparts. He’s also pitched much worse at home, which is good for the Cubs.

There’s not much historical experience between Rogers and the members of this lineup, but I think the Cubs can continue their hot hitting this afternoon. First pitch is at 12:35pm CT on Marquee and The Score.