Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/1/26): Buehler’s Day On, Rea Starting

Things sure are a lot more fun when the Cubs are hitting loads of homers and winning games, though it sure would help if the Brewers and Cardinals started losing a few more. The Cubs will get to see about that this weekend after doing so in Milwaukee, but they first have to finish their series against the Padres. It’s going to be another warm one at Wrigley, and the wind will yet again be blowing out to center.

We saw last night how even a bad offense can be dangerous under those conditions, so it’s imperative for Colin Rea to keep the ball down. He has only allowed one dinger in his last three outings, which is either a good omen or a sign that he’s due to serve a few up this afternoon. With a series win already in the bag and a day off tomorrow, Craig Counsell really just wants a competent effort that sees Rea pitch at least five innings.

It’s all academic if the bats continue to make like the temperature, which is not at all out of the question. Things got rough when only one or two players carried the load, but this team can play with anyone when the lineup is clicking. Pete Crow-Armstrong just finished a month that put him on par with Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig, and he’s leading off in center again. Alex Bregman is at third, Michael Busch is at first, and Seiya Suzuki is in right. Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner is at second, and Michael Conforto is the DH. Miguel Amaya does the catching and Dansby Swanson is at short.

They’re up against former Dodgers ace-in-waiting Walker Buehler, who is with his fourth team in three seasons after struggling at the end of his time in LA. The Red Sox felt strongly enough about his strong run in the Dodgers’ 2024 title run to give him a $21.05 million contract, but he was released in August of ’25 with a 5.45 ERA over 22 starts. He then joined the Phillies on a minor league deal and pitched well at the end of the season.

That wasn’t enough to secure a guaranteed contract, so Buehler joined the Padres on a minors deal and made the Opening Day roster. This will be his 17th start of the season, and he’s putting up better numbers than he has since 2021 in LA. Nothing spectacular by any means, but good enough that he should be able to land a much bigger deal heading into his age-32 season.

The most valuable aspect of Buehler’s game so far is an increased grounder rate that coincides with a reduced home run rate. He’s only allowed six homers in 78 innings, a product of throwing more cutters and sinkers in place of his four-seam. The fastball that once sat around 97 mph and made up nearly 54% of his repertoire is now down to 94 mph and just 20% usage. It used to be a dominant offering, but is now merely a setup pitch.

Buehler throws the cutter (24.3%) more than any other pitch, with his slider (18.7%) and sinker (16.9%) standing out as his best secondaries. Those three pitches have been great for him this season, but the curve (11.3%) and changeup (8.6%) have been almost bad enough to balance things out. The slider is really broken into two pitches, with his sweeper used a little less. While their shapes tend to blend a bit, the slider sits about 87 with the sweeper at 83 mph.

Having that much variation means he can be a very different pitcher based on who’s at the plate, and the splits against him have been pretty even over the years. Lefties tend to carry a higher average and OBP, but righties slug better. That remains the case this season, though the disparities are much larger than usual. Buehler has also been much, much worse on the road in 2026, which could be a matter of San Diego’s marine layer helping him out.

That was the case back in April, when he limited the Cubs to two runs on three hits over 4.2 innings of work in a game the Cubs ended up winning 8-3. These hitters have done very well against him in the past and should do so again in some very favorable conditions. First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.