Cubs Battling Chronic Issues as ‘Backbone’ Receives Too Little Support
Despite playing two series against the Rockies in just over a week, there’s been mercifully little talk about the former Cubs superstar who’s spent more time on the IL over the last few years than anyone would have preferred. Still, I feel like bringing up Kris Bryant because his battle with degenerative back disease reminds me a lot of what his old team is going through. What started out with such promise has been derailed by a chronic issue that hasn’t been alleviated by any number of different remedies.
If you removed the context from the quote below, you could just as easily say it was coming from Craig Counsell or Jed Hoyer.
“I wish I had better things to tell you,” Bryant told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders last November. “It’s not in the best shape, and that’s pretty disheartening for me. It’s exhausting for me waking up and hoping to feel (better). I can’t tell you the last time I woke up feeling I’m in a good spot.”
Just as it is with Bryant, the Cubs’ struggles stem from an issue with their backbone, albeit in a metaphorical sense. Speaking to media members prior to Tuesday’s loss to the Rockies, Hoyer explained that run prevention is this team’s tentpole. That’s been the case since the baseball boss joined Theo Epstein in Chicago all those years ago, but sustainable success requires having balance in terms of actually scoring runs as well.
No member of the roster better represents the dichotomy of these Cubs than Dansby Swanson, whose role Hoyer was being asked about. Swanson’s 8 outs above average rank seventh among all qualified fielders and his 9.2 Def score ranks fourth, but his .175 batting average is tied for the lowest among 204 MLB hitters with at least 190 plate appearances. His 69 wRC+ is only a little nicer, sitting above seven qualified hitters.
If we go from the start of May, however, Swanson is batting .145 with a 26 wRC+ in 146 PAs. Those respective numbers are 13 and 10 points lower this month. The Cubs still believe the superior glovework makes up what has become a black hole at the bottom of the order, but there may soon come a point where that’s no longer the case. He does still have 1.1 fWAR, which tells you just how valuable his defense has been.
“To answer the question directly, we can’t run away from our run prevention when we struggle offensively,” Hoyer said.
Who wants to be the one to let ol’ Jedward know that he did not, in point of fact, answer the question directly? While he’s obviously not going to speak about personnel decisions in a public forum, at least not when it comes to decisions that are yet to be made, one could interpret this as Hoyer hinting at a change. I mean, it’s not as though they don’t have options.
Nico Hoerner, who is likewise going through a rough patch at the plate, could easily slide over to short to give Swanson a day or 10 off. Pedro Ramírez won a Minor League Gold Glove at third base and could competently man second for a while. So could Matt Shaw, who was a Gold Glove finalist at third last year despite having played relatively little at the hot corner prior to being promoted last year.
Hell, the Cubs could have both Ramírez and Shaw replace Swanson and Alex Bregman with only an incremental impact on defense and a likely improvement offensively. Bregman has at least been close to league-average with his 99 wRC+, but that all crumbles in run-scoring situations. His 132 wRC+ with the bases empty drops to 66 with runners on and 38 with runners in scoring position. As the season progresses, those samples are growing large enough to be more relevant.
I’m not talking about designating the highly-paid veterans for assignment and eating all the money remaining on their deals, though calls to do just that are starting to bubble up from certain pockets of the social media cesspool. My favorites are the ones blaming the Cubs’ lack of action on Tom Ricketts being cheap. Ah, but there is a little merit in the notion that through may not be the only way out. Maybe some of these guys need the kind of full reset that can only come from riding the pine.
Bregman in particular seems like the kind of tinkerer who, if left to his own devices, will over-analyze himself right past a potential fix. He’s a little Jason Heyward-y in that regard, and some fans will no doubt take that analogy a step further. Swanson probably has a little of that as well, and both players also pride themselves on being out there every day. Perhaps that’s why the Cubs continue to fall.
We’re well past the point of this anemic offense being considered some sort of aberration, so the only options are to either hope things turn around or to spur change with a new configuration that lasts more than a game. Ask an old-timey ship captain whether he’d prefer to float adrift in the doldrums waiting on the winds to change rather than employing a few able bodies to man the oars. Whatever the Cubs choose to do, I’m sure it’ll all work out just fine.
Right?
