Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/28/26): PCA Leads Off, Amaya Catching, Rea on Bump
Congratulations, Cubs, you finally won another game. As a reward, you get to face Paul Skenes. But you’ve got to beat the best to be the best, and there’s a whole lot of positive correction coming due for Craig Counsell‘s team. We saw that at work last night as they scored more runs in one game than they had in the previous six combined. Now they just need to keep doing that more than once every two weeks or so.
Colin Rea needs a get-right game of his own after scuffling for a little while now. Though he only gave up three runs last week against the Astros, he allowed two homers and walked three batters. Over his last six starts, Rea has a 6.30 ERA with 37 hits allowed in 30 innings. He doesn’t need to be an ace by any stretch, but he needs to keep his team in the game.
It’s pretty much the same lineup as the last two nights, with Pete Crow-Armstrong leading off in center and Nico Hoerner following at second (base and in the order). Michael Busch plays first, Alex Bregman cleans up at third, Ian Happ is in left, and Seiya Suzuki is in right. Moisés Ballesteros is the DH, Miguel Amaya is behind the dish, and Dansby Swanson plays short.
As mentioned, they’re facing Skenes for the first time this season. The reigning Cy Young winner hasn’t been nearly as dominant this season, and he’s coming off a rough start that saw him give up four earned runs on nine hits over just five innings. Skenes only struck out two batters in that one as well, so maybe he’s dealing with a rut of his own.
He gave up five earned runs on six hits in his previous start, but those two down efforts followed consecutive scoreless outings. The lack of consistency could stem from a number of different sources, whether it’s his fastball velocity being down a tick or his arm angle being up by two degrees. That latter might not seem like much, but it could be contributing to the lack of depth in his changeup.
Though the offspeed pitch with the same velocity and arm-side movement, Skenes is getting 1.4 inches less vertical drop. That slight change is contributing to a big drop in whiff percentage, from 30.1% last season to 24.7% so far this year. His strikeout rate is down a bit from his first two seasons as well, and his 3.9% walk rate is in the 98th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Skenes can generally get away with throwing “too many” strikes because his stuff is so good, but that changeup has cost him. He’s also ditched the slider in favor of throwing only sweepers, but that pitch is likewise getting more than an inch less movement, this time to the glove side. Again, hitters are not swinging and missing it as often as they have in the past.
While he could certainly come out and carve tonight, the Cubs have hit Skenes pretty well even when he was at his sharpest. Over 91 total at-bats, they’re hitting .253 with a .764 OPS and four homers. Hoerner has four hits with a homer in 12 ABs, and several others seem to be unbothered by Skenes’ superior stuff. Finding a way to even the series would be a big confidence boost heading into St. Louis, and I think the chances are good that the Cubs can pull it off.
First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
