Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/16/26): Happ DH, Conforto LF, Shaw 2B, Taillon Tossing

The Cubs busted out the bats in a big way last night, scoring 10 runs on 14 hits without the benefit of a homer. That’s twice as many runs and five fewer hits than they’d accumulated over the five previous games combined, and their four doubles against the White Sox were one more than during that 1-4 stretch. Man, that was fun. I don’t think we’ll get any arguments from Nico Hoerner.

Now the Cubs have a chance to build another legit winning streak, but they’re going to have to go through the South Side’s unlikely ace. More on Davis Martin in a bit, but let’s touch on Jameson Taillon first. The big righty was a tough-luck loser last Sunday after giving up just one run on four hits in just over five innings of work. That was his best outing of the season in terms of game score, and he’s been very consistent on the whole.

Nico Hoerner leads off at short, Michael Busch is at first, Alex Bregman is at third, and Ian Happ is the DH. Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Conforto is in left, Matt Shaw is at second, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.

They’re facing Davis, a 29-year-old righty who was taken with 408th overall pick out of Texas Tech in 2018. He made his MLB debut four years later, working 63.1 innings in a swing role, then missed most of the ’23 season due to elbow reconstruction. After recovering to throw 71 innings between the minors and majors in ’24, Martin spent most of last year in Chicago. This will be his ninth start of the ’26 season, and he enters with a 1.62 ERA over 50 innings.

That sterling mark may be the product of some luck, but Martin has also vexed hitters with a slider and changeup that have each been among the best in the game to this point. Neither has an outsized role in his balanced repertoire, but they both rank third in their respective categories in terms of per-pitch value. The change is used more against left-handed hitters, with the slider seeing much more usage against righties.

Being able to deploy his arsenal in such a manner has led to reverse splits, with righty batters faring better against Davis. That’s a change from what had previously been very even numbers, though it’s entirely likely that we’ll see some changes in his results as the season goes on. While Davis is among the best in MLB with a 5.2% walk rate and a 27.1% strikeout rate, there’s a sense that he’s been punching above his weight class.

His 38th-percentile extension means his 94 mph fastball actually plays down a bit, and living in the zone while being in the lowest quartile for average exit velocity and hard-hit rate isn’t a great combo. Davis gives up a lot of contact in the air as well, which won’t play as well when the temps rise. And if that 35.7% chase rate drops back down to his ~29% career mark, that hard contact will turn into more doubles and home runs.

Martin has very little experience against this lineup, so it’s not worth looking at any historical results. Instead, I’ll point to the fact that he’s probably due for a speed bump after allowing no more than two runs in any of his last seven starts. Two of those saw him shut his opponents out, with four others featuring just one run. Over his last three starts, he’s surrendered just two runs with 26 strikeouts and three walks.

The Cubs may need to employ the same tactics as last night, when they strung together timely hits and were aggressive on the bases. With only two homers allowed, none since April 10, Davis isn’t likely to serve up tanks. Now watch that be exactly what happens tonight. I do think the Cubs will pick up another win, but I don’t think it’ll be quite as emphatic.

First pitch is at 6:10pm CT on Marquee, CSN, WCIU, The Score, and ESPN 1000.