Quantifying Hope: Cubs Sink to 84% Odds as Road Swing Heads Home
The Cubs won just their second game in a week to avoid a sweep in Atlanta, but they haven’t scored more than two runs in any of their last five contests. In fact, their five total runs in that stretch are fewer than they scored in any of their three previous wins. There was, however, a new record to celebrate in addition to the shutout victory.
By homering to lead off the 8th inning, Ian Happ became the first player ever to hit 10 round-trippers against position players throwing with their non-dominant hands in games that had already been decided. I’d warn you not to fact-check that, but Happ haters wouldn’t consider doing so in the first place. Anyway, the important thing is that the Cubs won on a day when the rest of the NL Central did as well.
Losing four games hardly put a dent in their division lead since all of those teams had lost at least one prior to Thursday’s action. So while the Cubs’ postseason odds dipped by 7-8 points, they’ve still got a comfortable advantage on that front.
What they could really use now is for Alex Bregman to pick up the pace at the plate, something that has been brewing for a while now. The third baseman has been hitting the ball harder than usual with little to show for it, but his five-game hitting streak (and eight of the last nine games) includes his first homer since April 24 in Los Angeles. That has his wRC+ up to just a point below average, which is more than can be said for Pete Crow-Armstrong and Dansby Swanson (88).
I know neither of them will be employing Mark Grace‘s slump-busting strategy, but maybe being back home will get things going. Swanson has only two hits on the road trip so far, one in each of the first two Rangers games, and two of PCA’s last three hits came in that first game in Arlington. There was a time when not much would be expected out of players batting in the bottom third of the order, but that’s not the case for these two.
There was also a time when playing the White Sox was a good way to pad your record, but former Cubs coaching great Will Venable has the South Side Hit Men rolling. The Sox have won five in a row, the longest active streak in MLB, and their 22-21 record puts them just a game behind the Guardians for first in the weak AL Central. This will be the first time the Cubs and White Sox have met with both teams over .500 since 2020, and the first time since 2008 that it’s happened in a full season.
If all goes according to plan, the South Siders will not be over .500 after the series opener.
