Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/12/26): Conforto DH, Mo Baller Catching, Rea Starting

After dropping two in a row and running their scoreless innings streak to the same number as their combined 10-game stretches of success, the Cubs are being rewarded with a trip to Atlanta. After finishing 10 games under .500 and posting a -10 run differential last season, the Braves have bounced back quite nicely through 41 games. Their 28-13 record and +87 run differential are both the best in MLB, as are their .270 team batting average, .450 slugging, 120 wRC+, and 3.14 ERA.

You’ll notice that most of those league-topping numbers come on the offensive end, making Colin Rea‘s task a very tall one tonight. Rea has only given up more than three runs in one outing this season, and it came in LA against the NL team that comes closest to matching Atlanta’s firepower. Rea must continue to keep the ball on the ground and work efficiently tonight for the Cubs to open the series with a win.

Nico Hoerner is leading off at second, Michael Conforto is back in there as the DH, and Alex Bregman is at third. Ian Happ is in left, Seiya Suzuki is in right, and Michael Busch is at first. Moises Ballesteros has been swinging a very cold bat lately, but maybe catching will help him heat up. Dansby Swanson is at short and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center.

They’re facing 30-year-old Grant Holmes, who looks like he’s auditioning to play Danny McBride’s stunt double in an Eastbound & Down movie. Or maybe Holmes is just a really big fan of former Cubs great Andrew Chafin. Either way, the curly flow and handlebar mustache give the Conway, South Carolina native some very serious throwback vibes.

The No. 22 overall pick by the Dodgers in 2014, Holmes was traded to the A’s in 2016 as part of a deal that saw Rich Hill head to LA. Holmes worked his way up the ladder, reaching Triple-A in 2019 and staying there for the next few seasons. He signed with the Braves in 2022 after being released by the A’s, and finally made his MLB debut in June of 2024 as a reliever. Last season saw Holmes work mainly as a starter, and now he’s a rotation mainstay.

For now, anyway. Holmes’ strikeout rate is way down and his walk rate is in double digits, and his 5.02 FIP says his 4.34 ERA might be something of a mirage. That’s probably because he’s holding batters to a .241 BABIP that doesn’t match up with all the hard contact he’s allowed. Holmes loves his breaking balls, throwing the 85.4 mph slider more than any other pitch (38%) and working in an 83.5 mph curve (11%) frequently as well.

The problem is that neither pitch has been particularly effective this season. Because they are both similar in shape and velocity, and since they finish below the zone a little too frequently, hitters are better able to spit when they see spin. That may actually be helping his cutty 95 mph fastball, which has sinking properties. Right-handed hitters will see mostly slider (46%) and heater (33%), with the sinker (13%) making up most of the rest. Left-handers will get four-seam (41%) and slider (31%), followed by the curve (14%).

Though Holmes only throws his 90 mph changeup 5% of the time, and only to lefties, it’s been an effective weapon. With 32 hits and 17 walks over 37.1 innings, there has been plenty of traffic on the bases against him this season. That often prevents him from working deep into games as well, so the Cubs have an opportunity to get into the Braves’ bullpen early in the series.

Most of these Cubs hitters have never faced Holmes, with Bregman going 0-for-2 and Conforto at 3-for-5 with a double and three walks. What it comes down to is that the Cubs need to continue leveraging a patient approach to exploit their opponent’s tendencies. They’re at their best when they’re filling up the bases, something they do better than any other team, even though that makes it even more frustrating when they don’t capitalize.

More than just trying to get back in the win column, landing an early body shot to Atlanta’s staff should help over the next two games. First pitch is at 6:15pm CT on Marquee and The Score, with TBS carrying the game for out-of-market viewers.

New series in Atlanta. ?

Tune in live on @WatchMarquee. pic.twitter.com/rW220FTSD7

— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 12, 2026