Shōta Imanaga Finding More Success, Leading MLB in Whiffs by Avoiding Zone

Things got so bad for Shōta Imanaga last season that the Cubs couldn’t trust him to pitch in a decisive postseason game against the Brewers. More than a few even questioned the team’s decision to extend him the $22.025 million qualifying offer after choosing not to exercise his three-year, $57.75 million contract option. Imanaga declined his own chance to secure a one-year, $15.25 million option, but his poor performance and familiarity with Chicago led him to accept the QO.

The whole situation ended up being a no-brainer for both sides, as Imanaga needed to rebuild his value and the Cubs know there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal. Everything seems to be working out even better than the most optimistic observers could have imagined, with Imanaga pitching better than ever through his first eight starts. His 2.28 ERA is 11th among qualified pitchers, and his 2.82 FIP is 13th, suggesting his results aren’t just the product of good fortune.

Imanaga’s 28.3% strikeout rate is three points higher than during his first season in Chicago, putting him in the 84th percentile among his peers. His 32.8% whiff rate is nearly five points higher than in ’24 and sits in the 91st percentile, while his 39.9% chase rate is up more than five points to put him in the 98th percentile* there. His walk rate is up as well, and by a much larger relative amount, but his 7% is still better than three-quarters of the league’s pitchers.

And that, my friends, is the key.

The lefty is throwing fewer rulebook strikes, but he’s getting more swings on those pitches that would otherwise be balls. That has led him to the most whiffs in baseball, with his 112 edging out Jacob Misiorowski (111) and Dylan Cecase (107). For Imanaga, making a mental adjustment was bigger than anything physical. After being coached his whole life to avoid walks, he struggled at times to adjust to MLB because he threw too many strikes.

Not to throw any shade on Japanese hitters, but it’s not as easy to get away with a middle-middle fastball in a plus count for the hitter in MLB.

“A (4 percent) walk rate is extremely low,” pitching coach Tommy Hottovy told Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic. “And teams know that. Teams are much more aggressive off him in the strike zone than the majority of baseball. It’s not about throwing less strikes. It’s about taking advantage of the fact that teams know you command the baseball.”

The big problem last season was that Imanaga was living in the zone and opponents knew it. Right-handed hitters could pretty much sit fastball/splitter, while lefties knew they were most likely to get either a fastball or a sweeper. While Imanaga’s mix hasn’t changed dramatically, he’s mixed in a lot more sinkers to righties and splitters to lefties. He’s also throwing even more splitters and fewer heaters to righties, tunneling the offerings well to get chase out of the zone.

His sinker also plays very well off the splitter, as the harder pitch works more to the glove side. Making those little adjustments and being confident in throwing a pitch he knows is supposed to end up as a ball has made all the difference for Imanaga this season. That should help with the inevitable shifts that will come when hitters start to figure out these new tendencies, especially with his splitter moving the way it does.

Jim Deshaies noted during Thursday’s broadcast that the pitch sometimes cuts almost like a slider to bear in on righties rather than tumbling to the arm side. There’s no value if that’s merely a mistake, but Imanaga is too good to just chuck stuff up there and see what happens. Then again, that’s part of the benefit of trusting your stuff. Rather than getting cute and trying to make every pitch do exactly what you want, there’s a lot more value in setting your target and letting it rip.

A pitcher can’t control what happens once the ball leaves his hand, so putting your mental effort in the right place is huge. For Imanaga, it’s about letting go of the notion that walks are the worst thing that can happen. As long as he keeps that up, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t, he won’t have to worry about settling for $20 million.

*Baseball Savant’s percentile sliders have Imanaga’s 39.9% chase rate in the 98th percentile, but no other qualified pitcher is above 38.4% as of this post.