Quantifying Hope: Streak Has Cubs Near 90% Playoff Odds
When we checked in last week, the Cubs’ playoff odds were around 75% as they headed into a weekend series against the Diamondbacks. Seven wins later, things have changed just a little bit. They’re now tied for the best record in baseball, and they’ve also got the second-largest division lead behind the Braves, who are up by eight games on the Nationals. Wait, the Nats? Yeah, 18-20 is good enough for second in the joke that is the NL East.
The Braves are quite legit, though, and they will host the Cubs for three games starting next Tuesday. That will follow the Cubs’ first break in 10 days, which might not seem like much under normal circumstances. But given the way their pitchers keep falling victim to one sort of injury or another, they need all the rest they can get. It’s too bad the Rangers play in a dome because a rain-out in one of the next three would not be the worst thing.
Below is the latest graph of the playoff odds in the Central, and you can see how the Cubs have taken off since their streak began. Following a dip on April 11, they have gained nearly 50 points by winning 19 of their last 22 games. As you surely already know, that includes 15 straight home games and separate runs of 10 and nine wins.
While the overall win streak probably won’t stretch to 18 games, the fact that they’re on the road means the Cubs will go at least 37 days without losing at Wrigley Field. That’s pretty impressive no matter how many caveats you apply. Also impressive is the fact that they’ve completed four consecutive sweeps at home, two of which have been of the four-game variety.
I’ve seen more than one person try to dismiss this hot stretch by citing the opponents, but anyone with an ounce of critical thinking skills knows how difficult it is to win four in a row, let alone nine or 15. Yes, those three losses came against the two best teams they played, but splitting six games in LA and San Diego is hardly some sort of scarlet L.
Their stockpile of wins is going to be very important as they navigate the next month or so, as Matthew Boyd is expected to be out up to six weeks. Just keep the bats hot, boys.
