Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/8/26): Conforto DH, Kelly Catching, Brown Starting

We all know about the Cubs’ ongoing streaks, so I don’t need to remind you that they’ve won nine games in a row and 19 of 22. Or that they’ve won 15 straight at Wrigley, which doesn’t matter now that they’re on the road for the next week and a half. First up is a three-game set against the Rangers in Arlington, where the Cubs haven’t played since the opening series of the 2024 season. You may recall that the Rangers celebrated their World Series win, or that Justin Steele blew a tire on Opening Day.

You may also remember that Ben Brown was called up to make his MLB debut in the second game of the season, an outing that he’d probably like to forget. The big righty was forced to wear after entering with his team trailing 5-2 in the bottom of the 7th inning. Brown made it out of that first frame with no damage done, but it was clear that his nerves were a little jangly.

Here’s how the 8th inning started for him: Single, double, walk, RBI single, RBI single, RBI groundout, sac fly, homer. Brown was mercifully lifted at that point, and Yency Almonte came in to get the final out of the inning. The rookie settled in nicely after that, splitting his time between the bullpen and rotation, but he struggled in the same role last season. The problem wasn’t his stuff, which was plenty good enough to get a bunch of strikeouts with a very acceptable number of walks.

Having just two pitches put Brown in tough spots when he fell behind in the count or when hitters just guessed correctly. That led to him being among the worst pitchers in the league when it came to allowing hard contact, and his average 92.4 mph exit velo allowed was in MLB’s first percentile. His results have changed dramatically this season, largely due to the sinker he’s throwing 43% of the time to right-handed hitters.

Craig Counsell can’t expect to get much more than three innings from Brown at the most tonight, so the bullpen is going to have to do some heavy lifting. Assuming Brown will continue to fill in for Matthew Boyd, who’s expected to miss around six weeks following surgery to repair the meniscus in his left knee, we’ll see his outings get longer each time. The big key for him tonight is efficiency, as he can ill afford to let his pitch count rise quickly.

The other key is getting enough offense to give Counsell more leeway with his deployment of the relief corps. That starts with Nico Hoerner leading off at second base and Michael Conforto batting second as the DH. Alex Bregman is at third, Ian Happ is in left, and Seiya Suzuki is in right. Michael Busch holds down first base, Carson Kelly does the catching, Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center, and Dansby Swanson is the shortstop.

They’re facing former Vanderbilt star Kumar Rocker, who was drafted three separate times. The Rockies took him in the 38th round back in 2018, but he opted for college. He failed to reach an agreement with the Mets after being selected 10th overall in 2021, so he played independent ball for the Tri-City Valley Cats of the Frontier League. The Rangers then picked Rocker third overall in 2022, pairing him with old Commodores teammate Jack Leiter.

Neither elite prospect has quite been able to find their footing at the highest level, and Rocker has already seen a drop in his velocity at age 26. The sinker that accounts for nearly 40% of his pitches is sitting at just 94.5 mph, down a full tick from last season, and his seldom-used four-seam is down slightly more. His slider and changeup are down only marginally, however, and his cutter is up by a skosh.

The slider is also way up in terms of usage, from 16% last season to nearly 37% through six starts. That comes at the expense of the cutter, which went from over 25% to under 5%, and the fastball usage has been halved to under 10% so far. Rocker also ditched his curveball, which was his worst pitch last season. The results have been better, but only by a little bit.

Rocker’s 4.71 ERA is down a run from last year, and his 3.98 FIP has improved by almost as much. He’s getting grounders at a 54.3% clip, putting him in MLB’s 89th percentile. On the other hand, his whiff rate has gone from 24.9% to 23.4%, and his strikeout rate is at 18.9%, down about half a point. While those changes might not seem significant, it’s never good to give up more contact when those batted balls tend to be hit hard.

So even though Rocker has allowed only three homers, he’s been tagged for 32 hits in just 28.2 innings of work. He’s only struck out 24 with 10 walks, which creates too many tight situations on any given start. The ability to get those grounders at high frequency hasn’t been enough to save him, and he doesn’t miss enough bats to extricate himself from trouble.

Rocker has never faced any of these Cubs hitters, so there’s zero familiarity for either side to leverage one way or the other. I see that as a decided advantage for a Cubs team that has maintained an excellent overall offensive approach, and that can beat pitchers in a number of different ways. Since their streak started back on April 12, the Cubs lead MLB with a .280 average and .375 OBP, plus they’re near the top in slugging and home runs.

Pitchers can’t make mistakes against them, and Rocker is a guy who is very likely to leave a few pitches over the heart of the plate. First pitch is set for 7:05pm CT on Marquee and The Score.