Cubs Again Make Their Own Luck, Win Fourth Walk-Off During 12-Game Streak
There was a lot of discussion during Monday’s Marquee broadcast about the influence of skill and luck on the results of close games. Boog Sciambi asked the question of whether, if tasked with beating Michael Jordan in a game of one-on-one, you’d rather play to 20 or one. Not that any of us would even get a shot up, but the obvious answer is one. The smaller the goal, the more influence random chance has on the result.
The genesis of this topic was the Reds’ 7-1 record in one-run games and their 20-14 overall record in spite of a -22 run differential. Among all other NL teams, only the Padres (20-14) also have a winning record with a negative run differential (-2). But, just like decreasing the sample invites all kinds of chaos to the party, there’s a whole lot of noise in a snapshot that features less than a quarter of the season.
It’s one thing to play His Airness to one, but the nature of a baseball season is that you are playing 162 games to one. So while an inferior opponent will find ways to make buckets here and there, the final tally will likely be lopsided. What I’m saying is that we’re starting to see the way this roster, under Craig Counsell‘s leadership, is able to hold much greater sway over outcomes that might otherwise blow with the winds of chance.
In other words, luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. Counsell has been pulling all the right strings so far this season, largely because he’s finally got a dynamic enough bench to make his choices pay off. He had Matt Shaw pinch-run for Moisés Ballesteros in the 8th, then swapped Michael Conforto in for Shaw to face Reds closer Emilio Pagán with two outs and the game tied in the 9th.
The same guy who had only 38 plate appearances all season and who hadn’t hit in a game since April 29 in April. The same guy who posted -0.6 fWAR in 486 PAs for the Dodgers last season. Conforto took a cutter for strike one, then worked a 3-1 count before fouling off another cutter to run it full. Pagán then made a critical error by piping a 94.1 mph fastball right in Conforto’s nitro zone, and that was that.
WHAT. A. WIN. ? pic.twitter.com/1uHCkqIcsx
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) May 5, 2026
“What Michael did…it’s just so hard,” Counsell told reporters after the game. “No at-bats in four days, there’s nobody on base, but he’s got the ability to do that.”
As with any big moment, though, we need to zoom out a little bit and look at what happened to put Conforto in that position. The Cubs had fallen behind early as starter Edward Cabrera allowed three runs for the fifth straight start. He gave up nine hits, a season high, and has been tagged for at least six knocks in each of the last five, but we’ll set those concerns aside for another time.
Seiya Suzuki tied the game at three apiece with a mammoth blast in the bottom of the 4th, then the Reds went back up by manufacturing a run in the 8th. Not to be outworked, the Cubs put their own engineering skills to the test with the game on the line. Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a fly ball that was a gust away from a homer before turning into a triple when center fielder Dane Myers hit the wall.
Dansby Swanson struck out, giving way to the player every single Cubs fan would choose to have up in that spot. Well, maybe not every fan; I’ve seen enough over the years to know that some folks are always trying to iceskate uphill. Anyway, Hoerner sent a ball juuuust far enough to allow PCA to tag up and score the equalizer.
WE ARE TIED! pic.twitter.com/JuhgyvKyDz
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) May 5, 2026
“He is the Cubs,” Crow-Armstrong told The Athletic’s Jon Greenberg about Hoerner last week. “He is our f—ing heartbeat.”
The play was a little too close for comfort as Crow-Armstrong chose to come in standing rather than getting down to avoid the tag from Tyler Stephenson. He made it in on time, but he had words with Shaw in the dugout afterwards. Shaw, who was on deck at the time, failed to let his runner know that the play was coming and to get down. Though it didn’t end up mattering in this instance, that’s the kind of thing that could win or lose a game in the future.
And that’s really what this all comes down to: The Cubs just keep doing all the little things right, and that is why they’re winning so many of these close games. They are now 7-2 in one-run games, a mark that includes four walk-off wins. All of those have come during their current 12-game win streak, beginning with their late victory against the Pirates on April 12. The Cubs also walked off the Mets and Phillies to cap those respective sweeps.
Their four walk-offs in just 22 days or 20 days are their most in such a short span since they had four in 16 days or 14 games back in 2022. Coincidentally, the Pirates and Reds were both involved in that stretch as well. It’s much less of a coincidence that the Cubs are able to prevail more often than not, whether it’s in blowout fashion or by the slimmest of margins.
It’s one thing to find yourself in a position dictated by the whims of the baseball gods, but it’s quite another to operate in a manner that ensures good fortune is almost always in your favor. Not luck that they’re in these spots. The Cubs reach base better than everyone else (.352 OBP) and they are among the top five teams in slugging (.431, fifth), home runs (46, fourth), and ISO (.172, third).
With that in mind, I think we need to change the analogy from above. The Cubs aren’t just any geek off the street in some David-and-Goliath matchup. It would also be disingenuous to call them MJ, as I think we’ve got to give that to the Dodgers. But could the Cubs be Larry Bird? Magic Johnson? Charles Barkley? Maybe we go with Reggie Miller, whose Pacers gave Jordan’s Bulls the toughest test of their six title runs.
I’ll leave it up to you to determine who you want to use as their avatar, but the idea here is that the Cubs have proven themselves to be a very good team. They’re built to better withstand the chaos of the season, particularly at Wrigley Field, and they’re cognizant of that fact. So when the moments get big, these players have the confidence to go out and trust that they’ll be able to outperform those opponents that might not be as well constructed or prepared.
They’re going to drop another home game at some point, and they probably won’t keep winning seven of every nine one-run contests, but I’m willing to bet their record will remain very favorable on both fronts.
