Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/2/26): Busch Leads Off, Shaw at 2B, Imanaga Facing Dude Named Ryne

The Cubs got their homestand off to a nice start on Friday, though they made it a little close for comfort after jumping out to a big lead. I really enjoyed it because I left the house as soon as the last out was recorded to head over to my son’s high school game. It was their fourth in as many days, and he went 2-for-3 with a double, a walk, and 4 RBI as the DH to lead his team to a win. Great way to open our weekend.

This afternoon’s game is another in which the Cubs have a big advantage on paper, with Shota Imanaga taking the bump to face a lineup against which he’s been dominant. Over 31 total at-bats, he’s held these hitters to a .129/.176/.161 slash line with no homers, seven strikeouts, and one walk. Imanaga is looking to bounce back after a tough effort in LA, and this is the right opponent. Having the wind blowing in from right won’t hurt.

Nico Hoerner led off yesterday’s win with a double before exiting with a stiff neck that had been giving him trouble heading into the game, so he’s getting another day off. That means Michael Busch slides back to the leadoff spot he had been occupying against righties, followed by Moises Ballesteros at DH and Alex Bregman at third. Ian Happ is in left, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center, and Dansby Swanson is at short. Matt Shaw takes second and Miguel Amaya is behind the dish.

They’re facing a familiar name around these parts, as 28-year-old righty Ryne Nelson toes the slab for the Snakes. The second-round pick out of Oregon in 2019 debuted in 2022 and is now in his fourth full MLB season, though he has yet to work exclusively as a starter. Nelson began last season in the bullpen and has piggybacked several times in the past as well, but he won’t be long for the rotation — or even the roster — if he keeps pitching like he has in the early going.

His last start saw him allow six earned runs on seven hits (two homers) over five innings, and he recorded only one out in his previous appearance. The Blue Jays hung eight earned runs on 10 hits against him, seven of which came consecutively to open the game. Yeesh. Nelson’s three starts before that had been very good, so maybe this is just a hiccup.

His strikeout rate has never been particularly high and his walk rate is up a little as he’s sprayed his cut-ride four-seam around a little too much. That 96 mph offering makes up over 60% of his pitches and sees equal usage to hitters on both sides of the plate, but he often locates it middle-out and middle-up to righties. That has led to massive reverse splits, with right-handed hitters slashing .308/.379/.577 this season. Lefties are 100 points or so lower across the board.

Though he’s traditionally pitched to much less pronounced splits, he’s been much better against lefties over the past few seasons. Most of that is being able to run the heater in on their hands to keep them from barreling it up as well. What’s really interesting about his results is that he strikes righties out at a much higher clip because his 88 mph slider, which has been his only good pitch, sees much heavier usage against them.

Nelson throws the slider at a 26% clip to righties, but goes to it only 11% of the time against lefties. He flips the script with his 80 mph curve, then throws his 90-91 mph cutter somewhat evenly. The splits are likely to even out a little more at some point because his BABIP numbers are so wildly disparate, with lefty batters putting up just a .208 while righties are at a .361 heading into Saturday’s action.

Left-handed batters have a BABIP of just .091 against him when he’s a visitor, and you can safely bet on that to change in a big way. The Cubs are the right team to do it, with Happ, Busch, and PCA all having strong numbers against Nelson in the past. On the whole, this Cubs team has a .988 OPS with three homers in 68 at-bats when facing today’s opponent.

How about getting out to another hot start and then keeping their collective foot on the pedal? First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.