Ben Brown Outpitching Mason Miller Over Last 2 Weeks

Much has been made about all-world Padres closer Mason Miller, but what if I told you Cubs reliever Ben Brown has been better? Over the last two weeks, anyway. That’s certainly not a knock against Miller, who still has the league’s hardest fastball and a negative FIP that indicates he’d be better with just a catcher and no defense behind him. He is still mortal, however, as Matt Shaw‘s controversial single and the Cubs’ general peskiness proved earlier in the week.

For all his dominance, Miller has been bested by Brown over the last seven days. As Nate Roper pointed out on X, the most mythical friar since Tuck or St. Francis of Assisi has struck out nine with two earned runs allowed over his last seven innings pitched. Brown, on the other hand, has gone 14 innings with one earned run and 11 strikeouts. His most recent act of heroism came when he entered in the 8th inning on Wednesday with the bases loaded and no outs, and proceeded to escape with just one unearned run allowed.

While his strikeout rate is slightly down and his walk rate is slightly up from a season that made people wonder if he was not long for the majors, Brown’s overall performance has been much better. His fastball velocity is up, he’s getting more grounders and allowing fewer homers, the contact quality against him is much lower, and there’s one more thing.

You already know it, but I want you to check out the two charts below before we get into it.

Not only is there a drastic reduction in fastball usage, putting it exactly even with the curveball in terms of frequency, but Brown has implemented a sinker. It’s not just a show-me option like the changeup continues to be, but it’s a real weapon against right-handed hitters. The overall numbers don’t quite do justice to Brown’s repertoire, which is decidedly different based on the batter.

With a right-handed hitter in the box, he’s going 43% sinker, 39% curve, and just 19% four-seam. Left-handed hitters are seeing a healthy 58% dose of fastballs, with 32% curves, 9% changeups, and just one total sinker. That lone pitch might even be a tracking mistake. Though it’s still early, the results show us that Brown has become far less susceptible to the splits that had dogged him in the past.“He’s taken a step forward — there’s no question about it,” Counsell said. “He’s delivered every time out. It’s been fun to watch. Fun to watch. And I think he’s gaining confidence. I think you see it, right?”

“He’s taken a step forward — there’s no question about it,” Craig Counsell told reporters after Wednesday’s win. “He’s delivered every time out. It’s been fun to watch. Fun to watch. And I think he’s gaining confidence. I think you see it, right?”

Being limited to pretty much just fastball/curveball gave hitters a pretty easy choice when it came to picking out what was coming. That led to lefties slashing .288/.344/.540 with 13 of the 18 homers Brown allowed last season, and he faced 42 fewer of them than he did righties. To this point in the season, lefty batters are at .206/.282/.235 with a .244 wOBA and no homers. Righty hitters are at .213/.255/.298 with a .249 wOBA and one homer.

What it all comes down to is being less predictable and more consistent at the same time. Being able to fill up the arm-side third of the zone from top to bottom has allowed Brown’s curve and change to be far more effective. It’s not even about the hard stuff being better, as his fastball has produced negative run value and the sinker is a distant third to the other two pitches in terms of relative production.

Pitching as well as he has would have been very valuable to the Cubs under any circumstances, but Brown is doing this as part of a MASH unit that went several days without its presumed top four high-leverage relievers. One of those is Phil Maton, who earned a rare multiyear reliever deal from Jed Hoyer over the winter. The 33-year-old righty has a 14.40 ERA after allowing two earned runs apiece in three outings prior to hitting the IL, plus two more in his first appearance after being activated.

Maton could well figure it out, but the Cubs are still without Caleb Thielbar, Hunter Harvey, Riley Martin, and Daniel Palencia (who should be activated this weekend). Even though Brown has earned only two holds with no saves this season, his contributions can’t be understated. Or maybe they can, since that’s how it works when we don’t have loads of stats to back them up.

The best part about it is that Brown’s trial by fire should make the bullpen that much better once those other pitchers make their way back. A unit that has been in shambles much of the season could again end up as a strength. That’s kinda fun to think about when paired with an offense that has shown the ability to score runs in bunches.