Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/28/26): Mo Baller Bats Second, Shaw at 3B, Cabrera Pitching
The Cubs dropped their third in a row last night, but they at least made it interesting by scoring the first two runs Mason Miller has allowed this season. After initially believing they got away with something, I’ve learned that the home plate umpire’s call on Matt Shaw‘s infield single was indeed correct. If a ball first touches fair territory, it must only be over fair territory when touched by a fielder in order to be considered fair. Though no part of the ball was in contact with the chalk, part of it was over the imaginary plane stretching upward.
Anywho, the Cubs still lost to extend their skid to three games heading into the second game of this series. They’ve still got a chance to take two from the Padres and escape back to Chicago with a split road trip, which would have been a good result even if they’d not hit a patch of futility. Edward Cabrera puts his 2-0 record on the line against a group he’s dominated in the past.
This Pads roster is slashing .167/.237/.241 with 14 strikeouts, five walks, and no homers over 54 total at-bats. Nick Castellanos easily has the most experience against Cabrera from their time in the NL East, and he’s 2-for-13 with a double. Cabrera is going to have his hands full with a group that looks like it’s coming alive, but he sure looks like the right man to play stopper.
Scoring wasn’t an issue last night as the Cubs got contributions from much of the lineup, though the top four hitters didn’t make much noise. It almost looks like Nico Hoerner has started to press a little bit and is taking bad hacks with greater frequency, but he’ll get things ironed out soon enough. He’s leading off at second, followed by Moisés Ballesteros, Seiya Suzuki in right, and Ian Happ in left. Michael Busch takes first, Carson Kelly is the catcher, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Matt Shaw gets the start at third so Alex Bregman can rest the toe he hurt in LA.
They’re facing…Anyone? Anyone? Buehler? Buehler? His last name isn’t spelled like Ferris’s in the apex teens-running-amok-in-Chicago flick, nor is Walker Buehler getting the day off, so perhaps the Cubs can get the better of him. They would not be the first team to do so, as the man who looked like an ace in waiting for the Dodgers has really struggled with health and performance over the last few seasons.
He missed most of 2022, all of ’23, and about half of ’24 with a forearm strain, UCL reconstruction, and right hip inflammation, and his stuff never fully recovered. A fastball that once sat 97 mph has trended downward in each of the last five seasons to 93.8 mph through five starts with the Padres. His cutter has produced negative value for the past two seasons, while his curve and change have both been decidedly below-average for three seasons apiece.
Some of that could just be the small sample, but we’re talking about poor per-pitch metrics on offerings that make up nearly 55% of his arsenal. Once a high-level control pitcher, Buehler’s walk rate has been in the low double-digits since 2024. And though his strikeout rate has bumped up so far this season, it’s still several points below his numbers from 2018-21 with the Dodgers.
He’s not getting a lot of swings and misses, and his 91.2 mph average exit velocity is in the 17th percentile. That has led to a whopping .377 BABIP against, which might not be a product of bad luck. Sure, that’s a part of it. But left-handed hitters are batting .340 against him so far as the cutter, change, and curve account for 74% of the pitches they see. What’s saved Buehler from seeing his ERA balloon beyond 5.75 is a decided lack of home runs allowed.
He’s only given up one in 20.1 innings after serving up 38 in 201.1 innings with the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Phillies last season. Hey, do you think some of his residual funk is to blame for those latter two teams firing their managers recently? Let’s start a conspiracy theory. Rather than tying him to other people losing jobs, my concern for now is that he has a hand in the Padres losing a game.
These Cubs hitters have had success against Buehler in the past, slashing .264/.312/.417 with three homers in 72 at-bats. Busch and PCA have done well in very limited action, and both could use a little spark tonight. The ball has been traveling well at Petco this season, so maybe the Cubs can take advantage of the matchup to even the series.
First pitch is once again at 8:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
Night two.
Watch the game live on @WatchMarquee. pic.twitter.com/wX1sG8VADo
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 28, 2026
