At Least Cubs Didn’t Leave Bases Loaded Again, Plus Some ABS Thoughts
After stranding 19 men between their two losses in LA, including twice stranding ducks on the pond, it was clear the Cubs’ luck had to start breaking better soon. That was the case on Monday night in San Diego, as they loaded the bases with two outs in the 2nd to set up a grand slam for Moisés Ballesteros. That was the rookie’s fifth homer of the season, and his 216 wRC+ trails only Yordan Alvarez (223) for best in baseball (min. 60 PAs). No other first-year player is within 50 points of the young Cub.
The only thing holding Mo Baller back from serious Rookie of the Year consideration, early though it may yet be, is Craig Counsell protecting him against lefties. That may be what prevented Michael Busch from winning the Silver Slugger at first base last season, and we’ve seen how he’s getting those opportunities this year. Ballesteros has likewise started to get a few more reps against southpaws, so we’ll see how that plays out.
His grand slam might have been unexpected just because it’s a relatively rare feat, but you expect a guy who’s batting near .400 to be productive. What was truly shocking, at least to most of us common folk, was loading the bases and scoring against uber-elite closer Mason Miller. I say most of us because CI’s Michael Canter called his shot in Friday’s Rundown by saying the Cubs would be the first team to tag Miller for a run.
They got him for a pair of scores after loading the bases with three consecutive “singles,” the first of which came as the result of a very poor call. To be fair, pun fully intended, the main camera angle made it look like the ball was on the line and that France tried to make it appear foul by plucking it up. Home plate umpire Dan Merzel’s angle led him to see the same thing.
Home plate umpire Dan Merzel called the ball fair, giving Matt Shaw a single despite it appearing clearly foul pic.twitter.com/yck1JiRPnx
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 28, 2026
It almost felt like Merzel was making amends for incorrectly judging a 2-2 Ben Brown fastball to Ty France back in the 5th. The ball was fully in the zone, not even touching a border, but what should have been the third out put men at the corners when Brown threw an actual ball. France then stole second and was the second run to score when former Cubs great Nick Castellanos singled to give the Padres the lead.
Back to the 9th and the way they battled against Miller for two more singles after that 49.5 mph dribbler from Matt Shaw hugged the line and, uh, stayed fair. Dansby Swanson ripped a liner to left and Pete Crow-Armstrong zipped a grounder to right, setting up a Nico Hoerner groundout that gave Miller his first blemish of the season. The game’s hardest thrower appeared to have gotten a little domed up over the series of events, as he uncorked a wild slider to Busch that brought Swanson home for another earned run.
That gave the Cubs six runs from two bases-loaded situations, which is a full six runs more than they managed in their losses against the Dodgers. The only problem, as you may well have surmised by now, is that they still lost. Highly questionable challenges by Ballesteros and Matthew Boyd earlier in the game left the Cubs without the ability to get that Brown call overturned, costing them the lead.
Though the Padres went on to score three more against subsequent relievers Phil Maton — who was making his first appearance in nearly three weeks after being activated from the IL — and Jacob Webb, the butterfly effect tells us everything could have worked out differently. Wait, that includes putting up two runs against Miller. Shoot, there goes my whole premise.
Unless, wait…I guess we could roll with optimism over the fact that the Cubs hung a big crooked number against a good team. Doing so mainly with the bottom half of the order is also a good thing. What’s not good is dropping a third straight game in large part to a stressed bullpen, even if all three of Monday’s relievers were on the Opening Day roster. Maton really needs to figure something out, as he’s now allowed two earned runs in each of his last three appearances.
The Cubs also need to work on their ABS challenge skills, as that cost them big-time in this one. Pitchers have been the worst judges of the zone by far this season, which makes sense given the way they think. It doesn’t help to have a young, inexperienced catcher behind the dish, something we also saw with the Dodgers’ Dalton Rushing. In addition to calling Miguel Amaya a “fat f*ck” as he quickly becomes one of MLB’s least-liked players, Rushing was all kinds of bad with his challenges.
All the nuances of ABS remind me of when the NFL first adopted the two-point conversion and coaches had cards showing every scenario in which it made sense to go for it. Not like the play cards Matt Nagy obsessed over and then could never seem to utilize properly, just various score and time combos in which it was analytically better to try for two. We see that now with fourth down, as broadcasters routinely refer to “the analytics” involved in not punting.
A lot of it comes down to common sense, like not challenging early unless it’s so egregious that you’re obligated to. If I were a manager, I’d probably also take it out of my pitchers’ hands and leave it up to the catchers. Or, and this is pretty wild, MLB could just fix the whole thing by going to the KBO system that sees every pitch adjudicated electronically and relayed to the ump. I actually suggested that several years ago, and I maintain a firm belief that it would clean a lot of things up.
First, you eliminate the two-challenge rule that forces players to pick and choose when to tap their heads. Second, it protects umps from the ire of fans who wonder why they can’t perfectly adjudicate every ball. Finally, and most obviously, you simply eliminate incorrect calls altogether.
And now that I’ve strayed wildly afar from the initial point, I will leave off by reminding you that the Cubs came through twice with the bases loaded. Might only be a moral victory, but that’s the only kind they’ve gotten in the last three days.
