Quantifying Hope: Cubs Skyrocket to 74% Playoff Odds, Third-Best in NL
It’s been two weeks since the last installment of this Friday column, and things have kinda changed a bit since then. Way back on April 10, the Cubs were 6-6 heading into their series against the Pirates. They dropped the first two of those and looked lost in the process before salvaging a narrow victory in the finale. That win was immediately tempered by a loss in Philly that saw them surrender double digits behind Kyle Schwarber‘s heroics.
At the time of that missing QH post, the Cubs’ postseason odds stood at 39.4%, just below the Brewers and Pirates in the division. The funny thing about rattling off nine wins in a row is that it makes everything look a helluva lot better. Their active streak has pulled them into a first-place tie with the Reds, but their +43 run differential is 45 more than their Queen City rivals.
Only the Braves (+62) and Dodgers (+55) have wider aggregate margins, and those happen to be the only two NL teams with better playoff odds than the Cubs. The bad news is that the Cubs now have to face the Dodgers for three games without the help of their top four high-leverage arms. Caleb Thielbar left Thursday’s win with left hamstring tightness and figures to join Daniel Palencia, Hunter Harvey, and Phil Maton on the IL. Not the best time to be facing LA’s high-octane offense.
Winning nine in a row is awesome, but doing so after playing poorly for two weeks means the Cubs are only just now in the position they were supposed to have been all along. And now they’ve got six West Coast games with a bullpen that is even more bubble gum and baling wire than at the start of the season. Coming out of this next stretch at 3-3 should be considered a positive development, but hey, maybe the Cubs will surprise us.
On a positive note, the timing of all these pitching injuries means that Craig Counsell is able to put some guys to the test who might not otherwise have gotten a chance. Riley Martin has looked the part early, and Ben Brown has really stepped up in the wake of concerns over his viability as a big leaguer. With plenty of time to rehab and get back for the remainder of the season, the pen could yet again emerge as a strength.
Beyond the injuries and tough matchups, my biggest fear with these Cali trips is the late-night start times. What’s nice about this particular swing is that the Cubs only have three of those. Friday’s game is 9:15pm CT, with Monday and Tuesday getting underway at 8:40pm. Saturday is on FOX at 6:15 and the others are afternoon affairs at 3:10pm. Not awful, all things considered.
