Cubs Well Represented in Early ABS Stats, Which Could Be Precursor of More Automated Umps
The Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS) is in its first year, and I predict that the stats will be a big hit. They’re easy to calculate, needing only simple math, and have a nice little acronym borrowed from the automotive world. Over time, they will very likely evolve into something that players and agents can point to during contract negotiations.
Jim Deshaies shared a few words on a recent broadcast about catchers using their ABS stats as a contract negotiation point, and that struck me as prescient. I can see it:
“Well,” said the agent, a short, sallow man with very large ears, Ozalis by name. “Zek had a 90% ABS rate. He didn’t cost many outs and that’s a valid point. It correlates to his superior strike zone judgment, which is why he had 94 walks. That has value, too. In my orbit, we express value in terms of numbers.
“Your numbers are a little low but we may find grounds for agreement. Pass the coffee, and let’s talk about fWAR and bWAR.”
That certainly leads us toward the advent of more complete automated umpiring, which might eliminate the need for humanoid overseers, which is definitely scary. I could see a robot ump going all fondly Fahrenheit during a midsummer night game at Globe Life Field, its fingers developing a twitch and then running amok into the stands.
This, even though I am the author of the Three Laws of Robot Umps, when I wrote for another publication. To wit:
1. A robotic umpire may not misidentify a thrown ball or, through misidentification, allow a strike to be called a ball, or conversely, a ball to be called a strike. All calls must be objectively correct.
2. A robotic umpire must objectively and correctly interpret the strike zone except where such interpretation would conflict with the First Law.
3. A robotic umpire must make the objectively correct call as long as such a determination does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
But I digress. That uncertain future isn’t quite here yet, may never be here. Jayson Stark (sub req’d) is on that side.
“We’re just too early in the process for me to even think about any change to the system right now,” commissioner Rob Manfred said on the Dan Patrick Show earlier this month. “I think we’re pretty satisfied with where we are.”
That said, Stark has kind words to say about ABS:
It may be early. The technology may not be as microscopically perfect as it looks. But once again, as it did with the pitch clock, this sport has hit a rare trifecta with ABS.
It’s fun. The strategy is enticingly second-guessable. And it’s game-changing.
Indeed, it is. The major statistical sites are already interpolating such data into their databases. ESPN has a tracker, which includes batter, pitcher, catcher, and team stats. A quick look shows that the Cubs are well-represented:
- Alex Bregman is the only Cub on the list, and he’s 3-for-6 as of 4/21.
- Edward Cabrera is 1-for-1.
- Carson Kelly is 10th, 9-for-11 (81.8%).
- The Cubs overall are at a 61% success rate.
Baseball Savant breaks it down further. On the catching front, where the greatest number of challenges come from, Miguel Amaya is just one over .500 (5-for-9). They have Kelly in 7th place there. Otherwise, Ian Happ (49) and Bregman (43) are the top Cubs batters on the list; both have really good walk rates. An updated list might include Dansby Swanson, who leads the team in walks at present (17). Nico Hoerner is 1-for-3, which I’d take to be the work of the baseball gods, as he has exhibited excellent strike zone judgment during his career.
“Entering Wednesday, there were 1,050 ABS challenges this season with a 54% success rate, so a touch better than 50/50,” wrote Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. “Roughly one out of every 74 pitches has been challenged, or 1.4%. That mark comes out to 2.6% of all ball/strike calls, or one every 39. The league is averaging 4.05 challenges per game. (Each team gets two challenges per game and keeps it if they’re successful.)“
One could easily imagine those numbers being translated into MLB team Sanskrit and bandied (or is it brandied?) about during financial chinwags. It’s going to have oddities like Hoerner’s record of challenges, but we can hope the lords of the game don’t turn the bugs into features. At the very least it eliminates, or at the very least, minimizes the effect of pitch-framing. Major League players seem to like it.
ABS stats will be everywhere by the end of the season. They tell a slightly different part of the story than we had previously had, another way to look at the game. Perhaps to the players and teams, it’s another angle to exploit.
We’ll see how much of the path toward automation the baseball gods can stomach.
